In his victory speech at the BJP headquarters on March 10 after the BJP retained four states, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted that the UP verdict has already determined the fate of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. He also said that poll results were a reflection of the country’s mood for the next 25 years. 

The message was clear — the saffron party is going full throttle with its strategy for the next Lok Sabha polls. This was clearly reflected in the BJP’s decision to retain Keshav Prasad Maurya — the party’s OBC mascot in the state — as the deputy CM, despite him losing from the Sirathu seat in the recently concluded Assembly polls. Maurya, after retaining the second-highest post, said that the BJP is aiming to win 75 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2024, up from its tally of  62 seats in the 2019 general elections. 

Keshav Prasad Maurya — BJP’s OBC mascot

There has been a mix of reasons that appear to have gone into the BJP’s decision to retain Maurya. A prominent one cited among them is that Maurya is an irreplaceable face since no other OBC leader in the state matches his stature. “Swatantra Dev Singh is the only leader of Maurya’s stature in the state, but he is a Kurmi — a forward class among the OBCs, not an extremely backward class,” political commentator Amitabh Tiwari told FinancialExpress.com. 

Another reason cited for Maurya’s retention is the precedence set by the party as it reposed faith in Pushkar Singh Dhami as Uttarakhand CM for a second term, despite him losing from Khatima seat. “Mamata Banerjee made this work easier for the BJP when she became the chief minister despite losing the election. Now the opposition cannot question the BJP on retaining Maurya,” Tiwari said. 

The decision, however, also signifies a stamp of the central leadership in maintaining status quo – a virtue visible across all states where the BJP has won. PM Modi, otherwise known for his knack of springing up a surprise when it comes to CM selections, is also treading cautiously. The BJP is aware that its existing caste artihmetic is working in its favour and there is a clear attempt not to destabilise it ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. 

Tiwari says that through Maurya, the party’s central leadership may also to be wanting to keep CM Adityanath in check. Changing both deputy CMs despite winning the polls could also have given the opposition fodder to attack the BJP. 

UP’s caste matrix

With the Samajwadi Party already making all efforts to woo the non-Yadav OBC community, which emerged as the biggest voter in these elections, the BJP could not alienate Maurya who has lately emerged as a prominent OBC face in the post-Kalyan Singh era.   

Maurya represents the crucial Kachhi-Kushwaha-Shakya-Maurya-Saini-Mali block. These communities constitute 6.69 per cent of OBCs, as per a 2001 report of a Social Justice Committee set up by then Chief Minister Rajnath Singh. The report had also estimated that OBCs comprise 43.13 per cent of the population (54.05 per cent in rural areas).

The BJP has so far failed to gain the confidence of Kurmis — who are the second-largest OBC group in UP after Yadavs, according to the Social Justice Committee — and the SP’s gains among the community. In the 2022 elections, the Akhilesh Yadav-led party’s Kurmi legislators defeated three incumbent ministers, including Maurya, and wrested control of seven seats that the BJP either held or where the incumbent MLA contested on its ticket.

NYOBC: Key to success in 2024?

A reading of post-poll data shows how the non-Yadav OBC voters have emerged as the kingmakers in the UP elections, and, political experts believe that the vote bloc will remain the key to BJP’s fortunes in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as well. Data shows that 65 per cent of the NYOBC community — which accounts for around 32-35 per cent of the state’s electorate — voted for the BJP, which gave the party the edge it required, apart from the upper caste votes. 

Political analyst Suvrokamal Dutta says the BJP has addressed the issue of OBC representation with Maurya’s retention in the UP cabinet. “The OBCs have voted for the BJP in a very big way. There has been a complete exodus of non-Yadav OBC votes in favour of the BJP,” he said, adding that the BJP’s focus on the 2024 elections was evident. 

“Maurya has not just been adjusted, he has been elevated. It’s a proper message which the Yogi government tried to send to neutralise the Opposition’s claim that the BJP is anti-OBC, anti-Dalit,” he added. 

Tiwari points out that along with its traditional upper caste votes, the BJP has managed to rope in OBCs and Dalits — which account for 60 per cent of the vote bank — over the years, adding that Jatav and non-Jatav are the only communities which need to be kept intact. “The Cabinet also has nearly 60 per cent representation from the two communities. Removing 10 per cent of the Yadavs, technically BJP’s target area is only 50 per cent — 30 per cent OBCs and 20 per cent Dalits. BJP has an advantage of 20 per cent quota for Muslims where it is not bound to keep anyone — this is their buffer area. Traditionally the BJP is perceived as a pre-upper caste party and factually, most MLAs who have won are from the upper class. So the BJP directly shifts this 20 per cent buffer towards that particular community,” Tiwari explained. 

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP, the BJP and ally Apna Dal won 64, Mahagathbandhan 15, while the Congress managed to win only Raebareli. The BJP bagged votes from 64 per cent STs, 21 per cent SC Jatavs, 60 per cent non-Jatavs, 11 per cent Muslims, 20 per cent Yadavs, 57 per cent Jats, 76 per cent OBCs and 77 per cent General (upper castes).