Vodafone Idea’s October numbers suggest that recent network expansion has yet to translate into subscriber stickiness, with the month reversing the moderation in churn that had briefly emerged in recent months, analysts said.
The operator lost 2.1 million subscribers in October, compared with 744,000 in September, indicating that competitive pressure and usage shifts continue to outweigh incremental coverage improvements from its recent network expansion efforts.
What do analysts say?
Analysts from JM Financial noted, “VIL’s subscriber losses are moderating, with VIL losing an average of 0.5 million subs per month in CYTD25 (calendar year to date) vis-à-vis an average loss of 1.7 million subs per month in CY24,” arguing that the latest acceleration in subscriber loss sits atop a still-uneven recovery.
The weakness ran broad across geographies and service layers. Active subscribers declined again, and data-centric segments contracted despite the company’s push to upgrade users to 4G.
“VIL continued to see sharp decline in its mobile broadband subscriber base,” analysts from ICICI Securities said, adding that the operator also saw market share erosion across total, active and broadband categories on both a monthly and annual basis.
Experts Jefferies reinforced this, noting that Vi lost active subscribers in 17 of 22 circles, an indication that the retention challenge is not confined to specific pockets but spread across metros and the hinterland.
Vodafone Idea’s network expansion
Vodafone Idea started its network expansion exercise a few quarters back. This included not only the launch of its commercial 5G services in 17 priority circles starting March this year but also expanding its 4G coverage across these markets. The telco’s management has said that it aims to cover 90% of the population through its 4G and 5 coverage and expects to do so in a couple of quarters.
However, analysts observed that the telco will still find it tough to stem customer outgo given the extensive lag it has faced in expanding and upgrading its network and launch 5G. Vodafone Idea was 2.5 years behind peers Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio on this count.
Airtel, meanwhile, staged a clear rebound after six muted months, adding 1.25 million subscribers and 2.7 million active users. The operator also reported strong momentum in mobile broadband, with 2 million additions in October.
Jio added 2 million subscribers in October — the highest among operators — driven by continued upgrades to 4G/5G and steady traction in its home broadband and FWA (fixed wireless access) offerings.
Analysts from IIFL said, “Jio’s FTTH and FWA sub adds have been steady since July,” pointing to a sustained expansion that is bolstering its scale in non-mobile categories.
“Rising data penetration and Jio’s continued outperformance vs Bharti (Airtel) on active subscriber additions should be positive for the sector’s overall tariff outlook,” experts from Jefferies added.
Jio also strengthened its share in wireless broadband, adding 2.3 million users, while maintaining momentum in rural and B-circle markets — segments that now anchor much of the industry’s expansion.
