By (Mrs) Amb Narinder Chauhan
Mary Elizabeth Truss or Liz Truss has assumed office as the fourth Conservative Prime Minister of the UK in six years. She beat the nearest contender Indian origin Rishi Sunak in a closely contested party leadership election, after the Party MPs had voted to remove past incumbent Boris Johnson.
Truss carries the same name as the British monarch, Queen Elizabeth. She has come a long way from being an opponent of the monarchy to becoming a Conservative. She declared that she ‘fought the election as a Conservative and will remain a Conservative.’
The Conservative party which has been in power for a continuous period of 12 years has seen austerity and little economic success. Liz Truss has taken over the party leadership at a time when it is widely predicted that over the coming months Britain will enter, along with much of the rest of the world, an economic and social crisis on a scale not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Her economic agenda-lower taxes and much higher public spending is seen as populist and has not found favor with analysts. The pound sterling collapsed in the international market with the announcement of her as the new PM.
While it is true that Rishi Sunak lost the race to Liz Truss, it is also a fact that of the top 8 contenders for the post, only 2 were whites, rest all were from diverse backgrounds. This is considered spectacular as it is the opposition labor Party that has more backing of the ethnic population.
All those MPs who were close to Rishi are expected to occupy the backbenches as the cabinet seats will be filled by the favorites, as is always the case. A combination of lingering loyalty towards outgoing PM Johnson seen as having been betrayed by former close ally Rishi Sunak and Truss’ pledge to cut taxes against Sunak’s tax hike plans, are among the key factors behind Sunak’s failure to clinch the race.
While the new PM will be preoccupied with internal and domestic issues including those related to inflation, high energy costs, unemployment etc. The external portfolio will be no less important. Apart from Ukraine which was prioritized by Johnson as also by Truss as the Foreign Secretary, relations with USA, China, the emerging powers including India, the growing importance of the Indo-pacific will together continue to pose majorforeign policy challenges. To top it all, Truss in her campaign speeches made radical references to shifts of UK positions on Northern Ireland and the possibility of shifting the Embassy to Jerusalem.
Also Read: Jaishankar congratulates Truss, says confident India-UK relationship will grow further
What does the change in leadership mean for India?
The latest change of guard will be closely watched for implications for the relations which have been stuck in the slow lane for some years now and needs a good kickstart.PMs Modi and Johnson enjoyed a special chemistry and during the India-UK Virtual Summit in May of 2021, the bilateral relationship was upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership.
As Secretary of State for foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs in the Johnson cabinet, Truss was counted among those senior British politicians known for championing deeper India-UK strategic and economic ties and often held forth on strengthening the relationship with India.
As the international Trade Secretary Liz Truss had initiated the India-UK Enhanced trade Partnership (ETP) in May 2021. She had also visited India and held talks with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal during which she had emphasized the rising importance of the Indo Pacific as well as India’s centrality in this context.
She is also said to have made some symbolic gestures like making visas easier to Indians, referred to India as a great friend, economic powerhouse, and the world’s largest democracy. On trade dynamics, she sees India and UK as a “sweet spot” and looks at the comprehensive trade agreement as covering everything from financial services to legal services to digital and data. Brexit has made a separate trade deal with the UK a possibility, while the one that India has been negotiating with the EU since 2007 lags.
Truss’s detractors, however, say despite her India friendly public rhetoric, she does not really relate to India the way Johnson did. Her most recent visit to India in March 2022 as Foreign Secretary was a disaster not only because of its timing embarrassingly coinciding with Russian FM Sergei Lavrov’s trip but also because of her attempt to drag India into UK’s proxy war with Moscow over Ukraine.
According to the British High Commissioner to India, Liz Truss visited India more than any of her other cabinet colleagues did and would enjoy coming back here as the PM. She likes India, and loves Indian food, he said. It was her visit to India in February 2021 that imparted a strong thrust to the trade agenda marked by the FTA negotiations that are expected to conclude by the end of October 2022.
He confirmed that though these negotiations are never easy, there is strong enthusiasm in the Truss camp for a mutually beneficial balanced deal with both economic and strategic significance. She had expressed desire to wrap up the trade deal by Diwali or at least the end of the year and to make sure it is as deep as possible covering everything from life sciences to technology to agriculture.
He confirmed that Truss referenced India several times in her campaign speeches over the past 3 months. Apart from trade, the other important aspects of bilateral relationship include defense, security in the Indo Pacific, cyber security, students, and the all-important Indian diaspora.The Indian diaspora, estimated at 1.5 million is the largest ethnic community in the UK, and they own much of the London real estate. The issue of illegal Indian immigrants remains a thorn.
It is also a remarkable coincidence that Liz Truss’s elevation to the post comes just as India trumps the UK to become the fifth largest economy; this development is remarkable for its timing as we mark 75 years since the end of the British Raj. The British envoy sees in India’s growth an opportunity that would strengthen the UK economy, India being a significant trade, technology, and investment partner of the UK. Total annual trade in goods and services is estimated at Pound 25 billion and growing, Indian exports are more, thus the trade surplus benefits India.
During her March 2022 visit to India, speaking at the India UK Strategic futures Forum, Truss had stressed the importance of deepening ties due to increased unpredictability in the world arising out of the Ukraine crisis. She had, however, stressed the importance of imposing sanctions on Russia, where the two nations differ.
She had urged India to pick the UK over Russia on defence and security, pointing out the strategic partnership of Russia with China and the doubtful efficacy of some of its weapons. On the issue of India’s purchase of Russian oil, it invited a sharp rebuttal from India’s External Affairs Minister that Europe bought 15% more oil and gas from Russia.
Apart from that, Truss is not known to have made any negative comments about India. She also thanked the Government of India for approving the export of 3m packets of Paracetamol at the height of the pandemic in April 2022. She takes a hard line with China and views it as a threat, a language the UK normally reserves for Russia.
The new UK PM will certainly be watched in India and any unnecessary references to India Russia relations may lead to avoidable friction.
Looking ahead at the 2024 UK general elections, Truss also faces an uphill struggle to win over Party MPs as she inherits a deeply divided party lagging in the polls in the face of cost-of-living crisis and the economy on the brink of recession. While a 100b pound package including freezing of household energy bills is on the cards, eventually the consumers will have to fund this package in the long run.
Going by the slim margin of Truss victory, Conservatives are clearly divided, and no single leader can claim to be the unifying force within the party. Given the possibility of the resurgence of the labor party with its reputation as India baiter, particularly on issues related to Kashmir, it is not surprising that there is a cloud of uncertainty surrounding relations with Truss’ slim victory.
Author is former Indian Ambassador to the region.
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