By (Mrs) Amb Narinder Chauhan
In a historic move, The African Union (AU) has secured a permanent place in the Group of 20 (G20), a development that could have major implications for Africa’s role in global geoeconomics and geopolitics. AU’s membership allows for the representation for its 55 member states with a population of over a billion to play a more direct role in the decisions made by the bloc. Until now, only one African country, South Africa, was a member of the G20. It is also significant that for the first time AU will have a status equivalent to that of the European Union (EU) in the G20. The AU will take its turn at chairing the G20 and hosting the yearly Summit with over 200 side meetings. South Africa is expected to hold the G20 Presidency in 2025.
The G20 is the forum where the most important global economics conversations are taking place and is oft compared as the economic equivalent to UNSC. The AU was so far involved as an invitee to the G20 Summits and the G20 Compact with Africa (CwA) was established in 2017 – under the German G20 Presidency – to promote private investment and infrastructure development on the continent. Anticipation grew following the recent expansion of BRICS in Johannesburg and the mounting calls for democratization and reform of global governance institutions.
The AU’s inclusion in the G20 enhances the legitimacy of the G20 not only within Africa, but also on a global scale. Post-colonial Africa has often been marginalized in multilateral arenas like the UN. Many African countries lack the necessary expertise and resources for effective negotiations. This offers a venue to rectify this disparity, serving as a bridge to help Africa leverage its interests more effectively on the global stage. Now, the AU cannot complain as the AU Chair was heard saying to PM Modi in the last G20 that ‘no one was listening to them’.
For the G20 nations, AU’s membership gives unprecedented access to Africa’s vast mineral wealth which are required in all sorts of technologies-from smartphones to electric vehicle batteries to satellites, apart from oil, gas, and uranium, in addition to its vast agri and maritime resources. Nearly 70% of sub-Saharan Africa population is under the age of 30, this positions Africa as the planet’s youngest continent, making it very prospective for G20 members keen on future economic opportunities. Furthermore, AU’s commitment to establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), set to become the world’s largest free trade zone uniting about 1.3b people and boasting a GDP of around $3.4 trillion, demonstrates its determination to be an engine of economic development. The G20 has crucial agenda items, such as digital payments where African experience and innovation can be used; AfrEximBank has been working with AU on launching the world’s most complex cross border payment scheme involving the continent’s 42 currencies. Africa’s climate actions over the next 20-40 years will determine the sea level rise in locations from Amsterdam to Shanghai.
It is widely agreed that there is a real opportunity both ways with the AU at the table, at the same there are serious doubts about the AU’s ability to act cohesively. Africa faces a series of challenges from climate change to political instability and economic inequality (490m people live below poverty line) which leads experts to disagree on how big an impact AU will be able to make on the dynamics of the G20.
It is argued by some that the AU seat at the G20 is more of a symbolic development than substantive. They argue that as many as seven countries have experienced military led coups since 2020, most recently being Gabon and Niger, raising questions about the political stability, the lack of which makes it harder for the AU to address pressing issues like terrorism and food shortages in many countries. The rapidly declining influence of France, a G20 member, on francophone Africa, brings with it divisive issues on the G20 table.
It is further argued that AU’s membership in the G20 is mainly driven by global tensions between competing alliances; the G20 is increasingly becoming a counterweight to the China-leaning BRICS, and the AU’s entry into the G20 is aimed at the balancing of geopolitical rivalry.
On a more optimistic note, the overriding expectation is that the move will help diversify global alliances and open new avenues of cooperation and that it is time for African nations to defend their own interests, generate their own narratives and not be used to further the objectives of the global powers.
This brings us to the question how? The G20 represents some of the largest economies in the world with the common objective on many global issues, including financial markets, trade regulations, and of ever-increasing importance-climate change. The South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has made it clear that ‘the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals must remain the center of international financing discussions to ensure that finance is mobilized in sufficient quantities and of suitable quality to support development in low- and middle-income countries.”
Until now South Africa has been saddled with the responsibility of advancing the continent’s interests, however, in practice, South Africa has its own economic priorities which may or may not align with the realities of other leading African economies like Nigeria and Egypt. The AU’s growing centrality in Africa’s economic governance means AU is playing a much bigger role in Africa than in previous years and can serve as a vessel for other countries that do not have the same development problems as a country like South Africa.
Accordingly, it would now be expected of the AU to prioritize policies to promote the continent’s security and development objectives including climate change, infrastructure development, health care, education, promoting peace and security efforts. The AU would also be called upon to adopt a coordinated economic strategy, like the EU’s stance within the G20. The AU which has been very inward looking for years must also be prepared to take positions on some issues of global significance.
Consequently, AU must engage in extensive consultations, recognizing that its priorities may differ from those of other G 20, most of which are focused on wealth consolidation, while Africa’s primary goal is to catch up in terms of development. The AU has of late outlined topics of great importance to the continent including the reallocation of Special Drawing Rights and the implementation of the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative, and a fair and equitable energy transition for continental access to electricity.
The AU’s approach to its G20 membership involves taking proactive steps such as organizing preliminary meetings, establishing working groups, committing to fostering relationships with fellow G20 members, and shaping global economic agenda to align with the interests of its substantial population, while recognizing that the primary responsibility for Africa’s development lies with its regional and national leadership, and not relinquish this responsibility to the G20.
The AU, accordingly, needs to make a comprehensive assessment of the opportunities that such membership would bring to Africa. The place to begin is Africa’s development finance institutions. As the G20 evolves into a forum of considerable influence, for AU to capitalize on its membership it will have to reform its institutions, empower them, choose the best people who can leverage the global capital, control the finances, and match them with the requirements in Africa for the betterment of its people. AU can be all it wants to be, but it needs to have more power. Recognizing the fundamental difference between itself and the EU which wields supranational authority, the AU continues to aspire towards that status. It may like to emulate EUs ability to balance interests with a united front.
There are, thus, several things that the African Union, supported by governments and multilateral institutions, can do to ensure meaningful engagement with the G20. Pressing issues include establishing who will represent the AU at the G20 finance ministers and central governors’ levels and appointing ‘Sherpas” to engage in strategic diplomacy. The AU, like the EU, has the apparatus and extremely credible diplomatic and financial prowess to deploy to strategically engage with the G20. It is simply a means of deciding who does what. The AU Commission and AU Chairperson would be expected to start making those decisions now.
The author is former Indian Ambassador.
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