By (Mrs) Amb Narinder Chauhan
Niger, which is located in the heart of Sahel in Africa, has a poorly diversified economy. Agriculture accounts for 40 percent of its GDP; more than 10 million people, about 41,8 percent of the population, live in extreme poverty. On top of that, Niger is grappling with an influx of refugees fleeing from conflicts in Nigeria and Mali. Niger has long been a key western ally and a security partner.
What started as an internally driven coup in Niger on July 26, 2023 has rapidly come to threaten Western interests. The fast post-coup developments mirror those of Burkina Faso and Mali and highlight the difficulty of sustaining the West’s security and geo strategic interests while simultaneously maintaining its commitment to promotion of democracy in different parts of Africa. Characterized as the seventh coup in Western and Central Africa since 2020, it was orchestrated by Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani, head of Presidential guard who ousted elected Niger President Mohamed Bazoum.
Russia does not seem to have played a direct role in the coup though its diplomacy succeeded; the west had turned a blind eye to the country’s crushing poverty, and its government’s heavy handedness against protests and the opponents, with a view to maintain military bases, uranium access and Niger’s cooperation to pen in the migrants headed to Europe.
The deposed Niger President was supported by the west which has resulted in west’s hardened attitude towards the junta which, though not initially anti west, has now denounced France and the French dominated 15 member regional Economic Community of the West African States (ECOWAS) grouping.
Under Nigeria’s leadership, ECOWAS has threatened military intervention if status quo ante was not restored in Niger by August 6, though it back pedaled by saying this measure would be taken only as ‘last resort’. There is also a lack of unity in ECOWAS. Only Senegal, Ivory Coast and Benin promised troops, even the Nigerian parliament did not authorize more than cutting off export of electricity on which Niger relies. The military led Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea rose in support of Niger and declared that any military intervention against Niger would be construed as war against them all.
The UN has said that it would not suspend humanitarian aid, while the EU and France have suspended all economic aid worth about Euros 500m. France also suspended military operations and promised unspecified support for military intervention by ECOWAS. The extraction of uranium, however, continues. Niger is the second largest supplier of the ore to the EU.
The US which keeps a 1000 man force to run a counterterrorism drone operation in Niger is looking for a politically acceptable solution so that it does not have to fold up its operations there.
In counter-response, on August 3, 2023, the Niger junta announced revoking of a panoply of military agreements with France entailing withdrawal of 1500 French troops from its soil, significantly shrinking the west’s military capacity in a region suffering from an increasingly lethal terrorism threat.
When Mali and Burkina Faso kicked out the French military, Niger remained the last bastion of US and French counterterrorism ops in Sahel. Unlike German, Italian and Canadian deployments in Niger, French troops were not only training local military, but also actually fighting terrorist groups at Niger’s borders with Mali and Burkina Faso.
Russia, fresh from the recent Russia Africa Summit, has only indirectly spoken against the move by ECOWAS, mindful as it is of the consequences of its actions in Ukraine on the food security crisis in Africa.
China has issued bland statements on the wisdom of non interference in internal affairs, mindful as it is of its large interests in Niger’s oil, gas and uranium being the second largest investor there after France.
It is estimated by experts that a military intervention will backfire, and that for the west avoiding a bitter tradeoff between commitment to democracy and security and strategic interests will be increasingly hard.
Niger is not only one of the world’s largest uranium producers; it also pumps about 20,000 b/d of oil, largely from Chinese projects in the southeast region which it exports through Nigeria. However, Niger is on the verge of a major boost in production to 110,000 b/d with the near completion of the Niger- Benin pipeline. It is still early days but it is estimated that these plans are not going to be affected by the coup at least in the near term.
Experts, however, warn that instability in Niger could create a security vacuum that risks destabilizing the entire sub region, and bemoan that after the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, the last buffer between Sahel jihadists and the coastal is gone.
Various European countries have evacuated their citizens out of Niger. India which maintains an Embassy in Niamey, Niger’s capital is closely monitoring the situation and has on 11 August issued an advisory for Indian nationals to leave if their presence is not essential. Currently, the only escape route is by road through land borders as the Niger airport is shut.
Author is former Indian Ambassador.
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