China continues to expand its presence across oceans. In a recent report by French news site Intelligence Online, it has been revealed that a significant breakthrough was made in November 2022 by Shuiping Tu, a representative of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Argentina.
The breakthrough, which was achieved through negotiations with local officials in Tierra del Fuego province, concerns the construction of a new naval base that would allow the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to exert control over a crucial passage between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The implications of this development are far-reaching and have raised concerns among military experts and government officials around the world.
China’s Ushuaia Base: A prelude to further expansion in South America?
The potential establishment of a Chinese naval facility in Ushuaia, Argentina, has raised concerns about its potential strategic impact on the region. According to experts, from the proposed base, Chinese military personnel would be able to monitor communications throughout the Southern Hemisphere, giving China the ability to intercept regional communications with a clear economic and strategic impact. Furthermore, it would allow for permanent monitoring of maritime transit in the area.
The presence of a Chinese military base in South America would be a significant geopolitical move by Beijing, granting them a permanent enclave in the Southern Hemisphere and a projection towards the South Atlantic. This could also potentially allow Beijing to build additional facilities and deploy naval and military contingents in the region, depending on the conditions negotiated with Argentina.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), first announced in 2013, has sparked concern about its potential strategic impact on the continent. According to experts, the project is a clear projection of Chinese interests in the region and the proposed naval facility in Ushuaia could be the first of many, along both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and the Andean area.
While the BRI is marketed as a global infrastructure development and international cooperation strategy, aimed at enabling China’s involvement in infrastructure financing and construction to build a broad community of shared interests in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, experts suggest it’s a tool for China to increase its dominance and control over developing countries. This proposed base in Ushuaia is fueling concerns that it is a way for Beijing to achieve this goal.
UK Arms Embargo in Argentina: A Hindrance to Regional Security
As China continues to exert increasing trade, financial, and investment influence in countries like Argentina, there are concerns that it may use this leverage to gain strategic advantage in the region. According to experts, by working together with Argentina, PLAN could potentially charge the United Kingdom more to protect the Falkland Islands, potentially diverting its developing carrier strike and submarine force from supporting operations in the United States, NATO, and the Indo-Pacific.
However, the United States government has expressed concerns over the UK’s “outdated post-Falklands War security policy” which placed an arms embargo on Argentina in the 1970s, resulting in a freeze of its military capabilities. Despite attempts to modernise its military in recent years, Argentina continues to face resistance from the UK. This has led to a decline in defence capability, and further led Argentina falling under the control of China. The US is pushing the UK to shift its policy to ensure the continuity of regional stability and security.
In August of last year, the US Naval Institute (USNI), a prominent think tank for the US Navy, released a paper highlighting China’s expanding strength, influence, and commerce in Argentina, and the potential security implications of these developments. The USNI emphasized the need for the United States to pay close attention to the South Atlantic, and suggested investing in joint security cooperation with the United Kingdom.
In light of these concerns, the US has reportedly been working to persuade the UK to lift its arms embargo on Argentina, in order to strengthen the country’s military capabilities and better counter China’s influence in the region. In 2020, the US reportedly offered to sell Denmark’s F16/A/Bs to Colombia and Argentina, and is currently in talks with the UK to have the sale approved. The Economy Minister of Argentina Sergio Massa is finalising the specifics of a US deal for a batch of Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter aircraft. This proposed sale, which would include 1980s vintage F-16 A/Bs with modest modernization, is seen as a way to help Argentina better stand up to China’s growing influence, with the hope that U.S. assistance and UK cooperation, Argentina can be successful in this endeavour.
As Argentina looks to modernise its military capabilities, it has been considering the purchase of India’s Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas fighter. However, due to the ongoing UK arms embargo, India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has been facing challenges in procuring certain components for the aircraft that have British origin.
Financial Express Online has reported earlier that this has led HAL to explore alternative sources for these components, in order to make the Tejas a viable option for Argentina. The process of substituting all UK origin components has been an ongoing task for HAL and has caused delay in the deal with Argentina.
The UK arms embargo, which was put in place in the 1970s, has had a long-term impact on the Argentine military and its modernization efforts, with the potential purchase of the Tejas being the latest example of how it continues to hinder the country’s defence capabilities. With India and Argentina having a growing defence partnership, the hope is that a way around this will be found to supply Argentina with the Tejas aircraft.
The potential establishment of a Chinese naval base in Ushuaia, Argentina, has serious implications for the balance of power in the region. It would give China a strategic foothold in the Southern Hemisphere, from which it could exert control over a critical passage between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. It could also potentially open the door for further expansion along the South American coast, both on the Atlantic and Pacific sides. Additionally, the UK’s arms embargo on Argentina, dating back to the 1970s, continues to hinder Argentina’s military modernization efforts, and therefore indirectly feeding China’s dominance in the region. It is clear that there are many factors at play in this situation, and that it will take a coordinated effort from all involved nations to ensure regional stability and security.