–By Group Captain Praveer Purohit (retd)
The renowned French poet Paul Valery once said, “Two dangers constantly threaten the world: order and disorder.” These words have once again gained traction during the two-day visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China starting May 16. The visit, ostensibly to celebrate 75 years of Russia-China friendship, was the first foreign visit of Putin after his re-election. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed their strategic partnership, heralding a “new era” of cooperation. Both came down heavily on the U.S.-led world order, calling the U.S. a “hostile and destructive” hegemon. Given the state of US-Russia and US-China ties, this was expected. It is also noteworthy that just two days before Putin landed in Beijing, Washington had announced fresh tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), lithium-ion batteries, semiconductors, aluminium and steel, solar panels, and medical products.
The “no limits” partnership, which the two leaders had announced when they met just a few days prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, seems to be gaining strength in many ways. Russia-China views converge on a host of geopolitical issues, ranging from the Indo-Pacific to the quagmire in the Middle East. While Moscow supports Beijing’s position on Taiwan, Beijing has been surreptitiously endorsing the Russian position in the Russia-Ukraine war and its public posture of being ‘neutral’ is only to deflect any sanctions by the U.S. and/or EU. The U.K. claims to possess evidence of Chinese supply of lethal ammunition to Russia. Growing evidence of Chinese malfeasance prompted an analyst in an American think-tank to label it an “axis of dictatorships.” In the 7000-word joint statement, Putin and Xi share their world-view, especially opposition to the U.S., and accuse it of “containing” their two countries. The statement includes deepening cooperation in space, nuclear power research and strategic cooperation. Ten agreements were signed, including one to enlarge military cooperation. The drift of the joint statement points towards a ‘de facto’ alliance, even if not a ‘de jure’ one.
The Russia-China bilateral trade has also grown substantially. Reeling under sanctions from the West, the Russian economy would have collapsed, but for China, which increased its imports from Russia. Their bilateral trade, conducted in Yuan-Roubles, is a method of circumventing sanctions. However, China has been careful to limit its exports to Russia for fear of Western sanctions. Instead, it appears to be trading with Russia through its small regional banks that are not exposed to the West. China has also been pushing Russia for cooperation on renewables and clean energy. Russian capability in these fields is zilch, implying it will be entirely dependent on Chinese products. This serves a dual purpose for China. It gives China added leverage on the Russians while simultaneously championing itself internationally as an environment-conscious nation.
The intertwining of hard power, soft power, economic interdependencies and weaponization of technology have made modern-day international relations and geopolitics more complex. It is not uncommon to witness constituents of an alliance disagreeing on some aspects and rivals agreeing on some. India’s policy of friendship towards all has been labelled as “multi-alignment” or “all-alignment.” Non-alignment and ‘fence-sitting’ during the Cold War did pay us some dividends, just as “multi-alignment” post the Cold War. However, Xi Jinping’s ascendancy as Chinese President in 2013 and the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 started a series of events that have thrown the world into chaos and turmoil. They have also created multiple problems for India, primarily because of the convergence in the Chinese and Russian worldview, which India does not necessarily share. The latest meeting between Putin and Xi was the 42nd time they have met since 2013. Their shared hatred for the U.S. binds them together. For India, the U.S. is important for our growth and security. The erstwhile USSR had considerable influence in many nations of what is referred to as the ‘Global South’. Comparatively, although Russia’s influence has waned, China’s influence in the Global South has significantly increased. The growing influence of the Russia-China combine does not augur well for Indian interests. Consequently, a struggle for influence and recognition to be the ‘leader’ of the Global South between a Russia-backed China and India is likely to escalate.
Even as ‘election fever’ seems to have gripped the country with national politics grabbing all the ‘airtime,’ one hopes extensive brainstorming must be underway to ensure India’s room for manoeuvre, decisions and choices is not constrained by the Russia-China combine. Citing historical references, especially to the China-USSR split and Indo-Russia friendship to wish away the clear and present danger to Indian interests would be a big mistake. In the India-Russia-China triangle, Russia needs China far more than it needs India. Russia and China are more aligned in their worldview than India and Russia are. Russia seems to have ‘forgotten’ the Chinese actions in Ladakh. Our dependency on Russian arms is a vulnerability and requires it to be reduced substantially. It is time to shed our traditional inhibition of commenting on Russian actions that indirectly bolster our enemy (China). A timely confirmation of India’s attendance at the ‘Summit on Peace in Ukraine’ planned next month and an active role in it would send a subtle but significant message. The bottom line is that the Xi-Putin bromance does not augur well for India.
The author is a former IAF officer who analyses international relations, geopolitics and defence issues. He tweets @aparagonpilot
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