By Maj Gen (Dr) Ashok Kumar, VSM(Retd)
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) was formed on 04 Apr 1949 after the second world war ended on 02 Sep 1945. It was created as a security alliance against the Soviet Union despite the fact that the USA and Soviet Union were at the same side in the final stages of the war. USA spearheaded the constitution of NATO to provide a security umbrella to majority European countries wherein all 12 founding member countries not only pledged their security forces as part of its grouping but also decided to fight together in case any third party affects the security of any member state adversely. NATO added four more members, taking its strength to 16 prior to the disintegration of the Soviet Union on 26 Dec 1991.
Warsaw pact, a grouping created by the Soviet Union as a security block against NATO had already ended on 25 Feb 1991 though its declaration was done in July 1991. The strange fact is that there was no need for the USA to continue with NATO security architecture after the Warsaw pact was terminated and the Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991. However, leaving aside the termination or scaling down, NATO opted for further expansion including 15 more counties as its members taking the total strength to 31 members wherein Finland was accepted as late as on 04 Apr 23. Ukraine is also attempting to join this security block but for the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.\
The expansion of NATO defies its genuine need and is more rooted in the USA expanding its influence wherein it wants to continue its hold over Europe for the linked benefits. It has been articulating that Russia is a new challenge to the security of Europe. This has led to thoughts of some European countries now vanishing who were thinking about their security architecture away from the USA. USA played the master stroke which was facilitated by Russia when it attacked Ukraine in Feburary 22. The russian action was portrayed as an enlarging threat to other European countries by the USA. This resulted in Europe getting tied to the USA for considerable time to come besides more European countries joining the NATO security architecture. USA has now made Ukraine a proxy for NATO countries to fight Russia and if it succeeds in checkmating Russia from any substantial gain in Ukraine, it would have achieved a major success without physically participating in this conflict.
With American, European and Australian continents in its firm grip, USA has now re-focussed its attention on the Asian subcontinent. It has started this with renewed focus on Quadrilateral Security Dialogue(QSD) popularly called as QUAD which was initially conceived by the Japanese prime Minister MrShinzo Abe in 2007 but did not get the requisite traction . It remained dormant for close to a decade. It regained traction in 2017 and has been progressing since then with requisite speed while it has gained unprecedented momentum since 2020 wherein there have already been four summits in just two years including two virtual and two physical summits to include USA, Australia, Japan and india. The USA has been having very close relationships with Australia and Japan but the entry of India in this grouping is most important.
USA has focussed on Asia now wherein it has renamed Asia-Pacific as Indo-Pacific To draw India more closer and wants to checkmate the expansionist agenda of China including its activities in South China sea and East China sea. USA is trying to checkmate China not only for the ethical reasons wherein it is seeking to limit China’s influence to ensure free navigation in the international waters and rule based conduct for all the countries in the world, but it wants to checkmate China as China is trying to displace USA from its pre-eminent pole position in the world.
China has already been making provocative moves around Taiwan, Japan, South Korea & other nations and therefore, they look towards the USA to provide them the requisite security. North Korea has also been provoking the USA and other nations in the region but all this could be part of Chinese design. The USA knows for sure that it cannot checkmate China without the dedicated support of India. USA has been wooing India by giving it multiple concessions in terms of waiver from CATSA, no action despite India engaged in the purchase of Russian oil despite sanctions and on host of other counts. In addition, it has been articulating the Chinese threat as a very serious threat against the territorial integrity of the Indian state. Numerous statements and reports are emanating from the American side to strengthen this narrative. The American narrative becomes more believable as China has been continuing with its transgressions across LAC in Eastern Ladakh for more than three years now besides China taking other provocative measures against India in multiple ways.
An informal statement had emanated from the USA side way back in 2020 to look at QUAD as ‘Asian NATO’ though this thought neither got formalized nor adopted so far but the intensity of activities since 2020 could not be mere coincidence but are likely to be part of the deliberate plan of the USA to checkmate China even militarily, if the need so arises. QUAD has already grown as QUAD plus to include South Korea, New Zealand and Vietnam though initially included to facilitate fighting COVID-19 . Two more countries Brazil and Israel have also been added as part of QUAD plus despite these two countries not sharing the borders with the Pacific ocean. A critical analysis will therefore suggest that enlargement of QUAD is also taking place in a similar manner as was the case for NATO wherein NATO expanded even when its charter was no more relevant after collapse of Soviet Union in 1991. Even if the USA considered Russia a threat, there was still no need to expand NATO to 31 countries as has been done now and the list is still growing.
QUAD architecture and charter may undergo substantial change as the fifth summit meeting of member states is scheduled in May 23 . It was planned to be hosted by Australia in Sydney but the venue appears to have changed to Japan due to pressing domestic engagements of US President Biden. The events in the run up to this summit meet are most important as senior military commanders from the QUAD countries have met from 15 to 17 May 23 wherein India was represented by its Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan. It’s obvious that this meeting will go beyond the theoretical construct of security dialogue and may look at operationalizing this grouping as an executable security platform should a need arise. More is likely to be known after the summit meeting.
Japan has already been advocating that European and Indo-Pacific threats are indivisible and therefore, there is a necessity for evolving a suitable inter-operable security architecture. India ‘is’ and ‘will’ continue to remain in the Catch 22 situation due to its dependence on Russian equipment and territorial threat from China. NATOfication of QUAD appears a possibility and will depend purely on Indian stand as there is full consensus among rest of the three countries. Whether this formulation takes place now or later during the State visit of the Indian PM to the USA in June 23 needs to be watched.
The author is a Kargil War Veteran. The officer superannuated from the appointment of MGGS (SD&WE) of HQ Eastern Command besides tenating the appointment of MD ECHS. He is a prolific writer, media commentator and defence/ strategic analyst. The officer is the visiting fellow of the CLAWS.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited