The monsoon question is still not answered. After a good start over Kerala on May 26, a week ahead of the normal date, rains paused after June 7. This has been attributed to the Cyclone Aila in the Bay of Bengal in May. Normally, monsoon rains cover most parts of India by the third week of June, except the northwest which does not experience any rains till the end of June or early July. Now, with the delay, there?s concern not just in the countryside, but also in the cities. With water levels in most major reservoirs below their ten-year average, water supply cuts have begun across the country in various places. The kharif crop that is sown at this time of the year and which accounts for a little more than half of the total food grain production in the country, and around 60% of the total oilseeds output, is under stress. Rainfed regions, which make up 65% of total sown area in the country, are waiting for the sky to deliver, while irrigation departments are holding out on water supply as well.

There has been just too much uncertainty about the monsoon in recent years. This delay has happened before and the Met insists it is no cause for panic yet. In Mumbai, for instance, rains arrived more than a week later than scheduled on June 18 in 2005 and June 19 in 2007. This year, during the first 17 days of the monsoon, Maharashtra received just 30% of the normal amount of rainfall. Data from the Met indicates that the worst affected has been the Marathawada region with a 82% deficit, followed by Vidarbha with a 72% deficit. Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are major producers of soya bean, cotton, sugarcane, corn and pulses and these will take the first hit with tight supplies if rains are inadequate. Moreover, with such low levels of water storage, even if the rains arrive late, a break in July rain can have more severe consequences. This happened last year leading to a fall in kharif food grain output by 2%.

On Monday, the government asked states to prepare contingency plans to deal with a bad monsoon. There is a lot at stake this year?the economy is standing up after the knockout delivered by the global financial crisis last year. There are already huge pressures on the fisc and the government?s focus on the aam admi needs it to deliver on adequate food at low prices. Going forward, the proposed Food Security Act, which aims to deliver 25 kg of rice or wheat to BPL households at Rs 3 per kg can become a challenge. The last time we were hit by a drought was in 2002, when the failure in rains brought agricultural output down by 7% and growth estimates plunged from an initial 6-6.5% to the final 3.8%. Then, as now, industry was recovering from a hit in the previous year.

While there are strong short-term concerns on food security and urban water fronts, there is some more trouble looming up ahead that needs to be addressed. A new IIT Delhi study from the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences has evidence that the monsoon has been weakening. Data analysed for more than fifty years show that overall, long rainy spells (more than 2.5 mm of rain daily for more than four consecutive days) have decreased across the country, while short and dry spells of less than 2.5 mm of rain daily for a day or so have increased. There are also significant regional variations in temperature and rainfall that have taken place over time, and these need to be studied in greater detail. This means that even when the monsoon is declared to be ?normal? by the Met, erratic patterns and change that is both crop-specific and region-specific are now a part of the monsoon story.

With the World Bank estimating that India?s demand for water will exceed supply by 2020, increased uncertainty about the timing and the quantity of rain and depleting groundwater levels will soon push water management to the top of the country?s agenda. Raising the capacity for water storage and preventing siltage are just one part of the required action points. It appears that water harvesting, recycling, zero groundwater extraction policy for industries, economising on usage, restrictions on pollution, sewage treatment plants etc, will in all probability be made mandatory one day as reality sinks in. Water management now has to be part and parcel of our lives, both in urban and rural areas. We cannot leave it to the Gods any longer.

?The author is chief economist, Indicus Analytics