In the run-up to Lok Sabha polls, the Congress is heading for a showdown over seat-sharing with the NCP, ally as well as rival for its votebank in Maharashtra.
The Congress is firm on following the formula devised in the 2004 LS polls. At that time, the Congress had contested 27 out of 48 seats, the NCP had contested 21. The NCP is now demanding an equal share on the grounds that it has grown in the state over the past five years and that the delimitation exercise also requires a change in the old formula.
The NCP proposes to set aside four seats for allies?one each for the RPI factions led by Ramdas Athawale, R S Gavai, Prakash Ambedkar and one for the SP?and distribute the remaining 44 seats equally between the Congress and NCP. The Congress has, however, made it clear that despite delimitation and the five-year gap, the old formula of seat-sharing remains valid. Both parties, it says, should follow the 27:21 formula and give away seats to their allies from their respective quotas.
The Congress?s aggressive stand has come close on the heels of posturing by allies like the SP apart from the NCP, prompting the Congress high command to declare that there would be no national-level alliance with its UPA partners. In an effort to put pressure on the Congress, Sharad Pawar is conspicuously hobnobbing with Sena leaders and Amar Singh.
In 2004, the Congress had won 13 seats; the NCP 10 (including one by its ally, RPI-Athawale faction); the BJP 13; and the Sena 12. Over the past five years, the BJP lost one seat after two of its MPs were sacked in the cash-for-query scandal and the party lost the Erandol seat in the by-polls, and the NCP gained one.
For both the Congress and BJP, their numbers in Maharashtra could be significant in the event of a fractured mandate?it is the second largest state with 48 seats.
The BJP is jittery over the recent mingling between leaders of the Sena and the NCP. The BJP needs the Sena more than the
Sena needs the BJP in Maharashtra. The NCP?s gestures?like teaming up with the Sena in Pune to prevent the Congress from retaining power in the municipal corporation; supporting the Sena-BJP supported industrialist for Rajya Sabha; one of its founder-members and OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbal dining with Bal Thackeray after withdrawing a defamation case filed against the latter?have led to speculation. The Sena has halted its scathing attacks against Pawar, targeting only the Congress.
These Lok Sabha polls will be crucial for the NCP as well as the Sena. Pawar nurses ambitions of becoming prime minister and the ageing and ailing Bal Thackeray wants to pass on the mantle of leadership to his son, Uddhav, who aims to become chief minister. To make matters difficult for the Sena, it has lost two important leaders in the past three years: Narayan Rane to the Congress and Raj Thackeray, who has formed his own Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) that seeks to hijack the Sena agenda.
In the forthcoming elections, more competitors have been added to the fray, requiring the old players to consolidate their positions. Parties like the SP and the BSP are preparing to storm the state.
The BSP, in particular, is cause for worry for all major players. In 2004, it scuttled the prospects of at least eight candidates of the Congress-NCP alliance by eating into their traditional vote. The BSP is poised to open its account in the state, riding on its agenda of ?sarvajan hitaya?, its targeting of north Indian migrants who have been terrorised by the MNS; and its hardsell of the idea of a ?Dalit ki beti for PM?.
