While the Nifty January series rollover at 66.7% was higher than the 61% rollover of December series, it still remained lower than the average rollover of 68.5% seen in the last three series. The market tone seems to have changed from weak to bearish given the rise in the open interest and volume of February series along with a close to 2% decline in the Nifty February future.

According to Alex Mathews, head, Research at Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services, roll-overs of shorts in a number of front line stocks has resulted in a decline of more than 1% in the Nifty today and reflects mounting uncertainty among traders.

Moreover, Nifty’s close below 5,620 ( the crucial long term indicator of 200 day Moving Average) continue to highlight the selling pressure. ?In fact the Nifty’s decline below its 200 DMA is the result of a couple of big stocks already trading below their respective 200 DMAs,? added Mathews.

Notably, more than 30 stocks including HDIL, Dabur, Tata Comunications, Reliance Infra and Jet airways have experienced close to 90% rollover into the next two series. However it is required to be seen whether the recovery in premium of February series over the index from 10 points on Wednesday to 24 points on the expiry day along with and an addition of 4.6 crore shares in the stock futures helps that the index may manage to bounce over its 200 DMA if it continues to hold above a psychologically important 5600 mark. Meanwhile, the consistent gain in the February 5700 calls and 5500 puts now highlight the near-term trading range for the index.