Reaching its first milestone in the four-month journey over the Indian sub-continent, the southwest monsoon on Monday lashed parts of Andaman and Nicobar islands, raising hopes that will hit the mainland through the Kerala coast ahead of its scheduled date of May 30.
?South-west monsoon has set in over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and most parts of Andaman Sea,? news agency PTI said, quoting Ajit Tyagi, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Earlier on Monday, the Met office had predicted that the south-west monsoon would set over Andaman islands in the next 24 hours.
Tyagi said a depression in the Bay of Bengal was expected to pull the monsoonal flow towards the mainland and it may reach Kerala earlier than May 30.
Last week, IMD had issued a forecast stating that monsoon could reach Kerala by May 30. The onset of monsoon has now set the stage for the four-month rainfall season that has been eagerly awaited by the farm community who had to bear the brunt of a severe drought last year.
The weather office said conditions were favourable for further advance of monsoon over more parts of Bay of Bengal and remaining parts of Andaman Sea during next two days. The IMD last month forecast a normal rainfall for this year with a precipitation of 98% of the Long Period Average, subject to a model error of plus or minus five per cent for the entire season (from June to September).
Last year, the weather office had forecast a rainfall of 94% plus or minus five per cent in April and then fine tuned it to 93% plus or minus four per cent. But, the country received a rainfall of 78% of the LPA only for the season.
The normal monsoon forecast is expected to bring cheers to over 235 million farmers who had faced drought last year due to failed monsoon. A good monsoon could help in sowing of rice, sugarcane, soybean and corn and lead to a rebound in the agricultural output.
It could also help Prime Minister Manmohan Singh?s government to calm soaring headline inflation, which stood at 9.59% in April. Agriculture minister Sharad Pawar last week said his government would closely watch monsoon rains before easing a three-year-old ban on export of wheat.
A favourable parameter for a normal monsoon was the end of the El Nino event for the year. Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) had announced the conclusion of the El Nino event of 2009-10 saying that all the major indicators were now below El Nino thresholds.
