India will need to import about 1.38 million tonne (MT) of urea in the current season to make up for a shortfall, according the noted market monitor, Fertecon. With the opening stock of 1.42 MT on April 1, an estimated production of 19.5 MT, imports of 1.8 MT from Oman and other imports of 3.1 MT, the total availability of urea stands at 25.82 MT, while the estimated demand is at 27.2 MT. Thus about 1.38 MT of urea needs to be imported to make up the shortfall.
The opening stock of urea as on November 1 was only 1.18 MT. Among other constraints of immediately increasing urea production is that though Tata Chemical?s urea plant has removed bottlenecks, it is unable to commence operations due to a lack of gas feedstock. Reviewing the situation, Fertecon further said that an additional 700,000 tonne of urea could be purchased from global market as buffer stock.
Over the past seven years, urea sales increased in November, peaked during December and January, dipped in February and March, and hit the lowest levels in April and May before reviving from June onwards with the onset of the southwest monsoon.
After the recent lapse of the tender floated by MMTC for the import of urea, IPL is expected to float tenders for urea imports. The Yuzhnyy prices of urea range between $230-$235 a tonne on FoB bulk. Middle East prilled urea prices range from $250-$260 on FoB bulk and NOLA urea prices range between $230-$240 a tonne on FoB basis. There are rumours that a Ukraine producer is willing to quote $230 a tonne on FoB basis.
According to a recent FMB report, India would have to negotiate for the import of Murate of Potash (MoP) by the beginning of April 2009 as the stocks are depleting due to an increase in demand. Ammonia imports were buoyant in November with around 175,000 tonne which was delivered by the end of the month. IPL has floated tenders for import of 25,000 tonne of sulphur.
