First, the good news. While November steel production in the 66 countries that report figures to the World Steel Association was 19% lower than in the same month a year earlier, India bucked the trend by registering a 1.9% increase. This, at a time when the world?s largest steel producer, China, witnessed a decline of 12.4% at 35.2 million tonne (mt) for the month.
Moreover, in the first 11 months of the current calendar year, when world production registered a marginal 0.9% increase at 1,224.6 mt over the same period in 2007, India saw a 4.6% rise in output at 50.56 mt. In the same period, China recorded an increase of only 2.6% at 463 mt.
Now, the bad news. As the slowdown from consuming sectors started late in India, industry analysts predict that by March, India will mirror the trend in most other nations by registering a decline in steel production.
?In the current calendar year, steel production started declining from September?around the time when global slackening of demand occurred. In India, the demand slowdown in that proportion started a couple of months late and would be reflected by March,? confirmed an official with the country?s largest steel manufacturing firm, state-owned Steel Authority of India Ltd.
Globally as well as in the domestic market, steel prices shot to new highs in the first half of the calendar year. However, the meltdown began in September. The government spent the first half of the year convincing steel companies not to hike prices to control inflation, but in the last few weeks has come out with duty sops to check cheap imports.
Commenting on the market prospects, Sail chairman SK Roongta said, ?We are not going to be back to pre-September levels so soon. Though the prevailing negative sentiments in the world will improve, long-term projects would depend on the demand-supply scenario.?
Overall, Asia produced 54.1 mt of steel in November, compared with 61 mt the previous year, registering an 11.4% decline. Japanese production was 8.8 mt, down 12.9% over the same month last year. South Korea saw a decrease of 9%, producing 3.9 mt.
In the EU, Germany produced 3.3 mt in November, a decline of 18.5%, Italy 2.3 mt, down 16.5 % and France 1.0 mt, dropping 29.1%. US steel production was down 38.4% at 5 mt, compared with 8.2 mt in the same month last year, while consolidated
North American production was down 30.4% at 7.7 mt, against last year?s 11 mt.
In the CIS, 5.8 mt of crude steel was produced in November, a decrease of 43.1% compared with the same month last year. Russia produced 3.7 mt, down 36.5%.
