China will certainly not be celebrating, commemorating or even mourning the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre today. Yet, the killing of thousands (by unofficial estimates) of innocent demonstrators in the heart of China?s capital by the armed forces of the Chinese state ought to be mourned by all, particularly liberal-minded Chinese?probably a minority, but no longer insignificant. That they cannot do so openly is a stark reminder of the complete and brutal control the Communist party has of the polity and society, even as it has liberalised the economy extensively over the last 20 years. In fact, the Chinese state apparatus may have been spurred into more concrete action on the economy in the aftermath of Tiananmen?like in may other authoritarian Asian countries, the Communist Party of China believed that economic prosperity may quell the potency of political dissent.
On the economic front, the Chinese state may have plenty of reasons to feel cheery even during these generally bleak economic times. Consider the most obvious comparison the Chinese would make with their unwieldy and democratic neighbour, India. In 1980, just after China began its reforms, per capita income was just over $300 in China and around $250 in India?hardly a big difference. In 1989, the year of Tiananmen and a decade into reforms, China still hadn?t established a firm lead over India at least in per capita income terms. China had reached the $400 mark while India had crossed $300 to $313. India began its big bang reforms in earnest in 1991, now almost two decades old. However, when one compares per capita income estimates for 2009, China?s is now three-and-half times bigger than India?$3,600 in China and just under $1,000 in India. So, in purely economic terms, the Chinese have achieved much more out of the 20 years post-Tiananmen than India has in two decade of economic reform. Perhaps the two most important part of the difference in tales are infrastructure and foreign investment?China has done infinitely better on both counts. Still, economic success has come at considerable cost to the people of China?freedom is a taboo word and many critics argue that the development process has been lopsided. The downturn will severely test the ability of the Chinese state to maintain its social contract as it has existed until now. Twenty years after Tiananmen, it would be safe to say that the Chinese state has won the battle, not only with its own people, but also India. Yet, there is every reason to believe that it may yet lose the longer war to both.
