India?s edible oil imports may have fallen 30% in October, a reversal from September?s unexpected record imports, as local soybean crushing season began, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.
India ?s soyabean crushing season starts in October.
Stocks held by importers at warehouses near ports in October are expected to have gone up 8% to 608,848 tonnes from a month earlier, the survey showed.
The world?s top vegetable oil buyer is forecast to have imported 606,580 tonnes in October, 23% lower than a year ago, the mean of estimates from eight top traders across India showed.
India ?s actual edible oil imports have been rising on a monthly basis since March, except in July when shipments were lower than the preceding month.
The Solvent Extractors? Association is expected to release its trade data later this week.
Estimates of edible oil imports in the marketing year ended October ranged from 8.1 million to 8.3 million tonne, up about 45% from a year ago.
Trade bodies like the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade expects total vegetable oil imports at 8.7 million tonne, including 8.2 million tonne of edible oils, in the year to October.
Trade bodies cite the friendly import tax regime in India as the main reason for the yearly rise in overseas purchases.
Port stocks are heavy, said Atul Chaturvedi, chief executive officer at Adani Wilmar Ltd. High inventory levels are likely in November and December, which would control prices, he added.
Meanwhile, noted edible oil expert Dorab E Mistry said that India ?s vegetable oil consumption will rise by a little over five lakh tonnes in 2009-10 season, starting this month, on the back of strong economic growth.
The total vegetable oil consumption will rise to 15.5 million tonne in the 2009-10 oil year (November-October) from 14.92 million tonne in the previous year, keeping the country?s imports at around last year?s level of 8.6 million tonne, Mistry said.
?I am raising my estimate of Indian per capita consumption of vegetable oil due to the strong economic growth that the Indian economy is enjoying,? Mistry said in a paper presented on Sunday at the 4th China International Oil Conference.