The continuing standoff between the Left and the ruling UPA on the Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement snowballed into a crisis on Friday following a clear ultimatum from the Left that the deal was unacceptable.
Throwing the ball back into the Congress-led UPA?s court, the CPI(M) made it clear that the Left view against the deal in its current form was united and threatened the coalition government with ?serious consequences? of operationalising it, but stopped short of withdrawing support.
After its two-day meeting, the CPI(M) politburo passed a resolution describing the deal as ?unacceptable? and demanded that the government did not proceed further by starting negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which would be binding on India.
That the crisis was indeed acquiring serious proportions, possibly with the ability to impact the longevity of the government, was evident when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, after being given the blunt message by Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury, convened a meeting of the party core committee, including Pranab Mukherjee, Ahmed Patel, AK Antony, Arjun Singh and Shivraj Patil, to assess the implications of the CPI(M) stand.
Earlier, Singh?s meeting with the Left leaders was also attended by Gandhi and Mukherjee. Gandhi attended a meeting with the Left for the first time, a clear indication that the matter was no longer confined to technical issues, but going into the political consequences as well.
Following this, the Congress began consultations with UPA constituents on the fallout of putting the deal on hold and consequences of going ahead with it. The Prime Minister and Gandhi are also said to be considering calling a meeting of all allies to take stock of situation. Mukherjee is learnt to have held a meeting with foreign secretary Shivshankar Menon, who apprised him of the fallout if the process of operationalising the deal is put on hold.
On its part, the CPI(M) is now holding meetings with its junior Left partners to solidify its position. It will also convene a meeting of the party?s central committee, the overall apex decision-making body on August 22 and 23 to endorse the politburo decision.
The 123 pact it now seems to be in real danger of becoming a lameduck deal, unless the government disregards Left opposition and proceeds ahead with step two and three ? negotiations with the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group. In any case, it is obvious now that the government may not venture into this unless a compromise formula is hammered out with the Left. There have been indications that this is being initiated by government managers with Left moderates like Sitaram Yechury and Bengal chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee with efforts to try and address Left concerns.
The Left parties have a combined strength of 59 MPs in the 545-member Lok Sabha. If they withdraw support, the Manmohan Singh government may be reduced to a minority with a strength of a little over 240 MPs about 30 short of simple majority.
