US job market is starting to show more signs of slowing down. Payroll firm ADP said on Tuesday that layoffs have increased over the past month.
According to ADP, private companies cut an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the last four weeks. This is a big jump from the previous update, which showed only 2,500 jobs lost per week.
Because the government shutdown delayed economic reports, ADP’s data is helping fill the gaps in understanding how the economy is doing.
Important government agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, have released new schedules for their reports. But major updates, like the monthly nonfarm payrolls numbers, will not be available until December.
This delay means Federal Reserve officials won’t have their usual data when they meet on December 9–10. Still, in recent days, several Fed officials have supported additional interest rate cuts. Markets now expect another rate cut next month.
Expert on the jobs data
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said, “With the next jobs report now scheduled for December 16 and CPI for December 18, there is little on the calendar to derail a cut on December 10,” in a note shared with CNBC.
Hatzius also said the data expected in mid-December may show more job losses, “alternative indicators show renewed job losses in October” even though the BLS reported stronger-than-expected growth of 119,000 jobs in September.
Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December and make two additional quarter-point cuts in 2026.
ADP’s preliminary report
ADP’s new numbers are part of a preliminary estimate from its National Employment Report. Last week, ADP said US companies had added 2,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 1.
The latest update shows that trend has reversed, with companies now losing jobs instead of adding them. This news comes just weeks before the Federal Reserve must decide its next move on interest rates, including whether a December rate cut is necessary or not.
