Poland, a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) member, has been hit by a missile coming from bordering Ukraine, where Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a fierce battle. This missile could have potentially escalated the matter from a bilateral issue to a global one.
Implications of an Attack
NATO, founded in 1949, is especially feared given its charter. According to the NATO charter’s Article 5, if any one country is attacked, all other members are also automatically considered under attack. Ukraine’s NATO membership is also something that triggered the current crisis in Ukraine. The Russian narrative is that NATO’s Article 5 creates a transnational boundary. And American eagerness to continue expansion has ensured a larger part of the western Russian border to be shared with a NATO country.
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Russia has been cognizant of the NATO threat and knows that single handedly, it cannot put up a fight against the organisation. In retaliation, it has built a failsafe, “Dead Hand”. Russia’s Dead Hand can be traced back to the Cold War era. This system is an automatic nuclear weapons control system. The system is meant to unleash multiple intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with nuclear warheads automatically if all key personnel have been killed.
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If this missile attack translates to the activation of Article 5 of NATO, it will lead to a chain of events that no one desires.
Changing Narratives
When the incident first came to light, Poland sought to invoke Article 5. Poland officially issued a statement claiming that a Russian missile dropped on the bordering village of Przewodow, which resulted in the death of two citizens. Many NATO members were present at the G20 summit in Indonesia and immediately convened an emergency meeting. Russia outrightly denied this claim and labelled it to be a deliberate provocation aimed at escalation. The Russian defence ministry said in its statement that the missile is an anti-aircraft guided missile of a Soviet era S-300 air defence with the Ukrainian forces.
Poland is a key NATO ally. In case of a movement of Russian troops westwards, it is Poland that stands between them and Western Europe. While all major NATO members have expressed condolences, they have downplayed the incident.
For now, NATO has invoked Article 4 instead of the dreaded Article 5. Article 4 states that all members will consult together whenever any of them opines their territorial integrity, political independence or security to be under threat.
In the latest development, Poland, NATO and Russia have mutually agreed to label the attack as a misfire from the Ukrainian defence system. Ukraine has sought access to the area of the attack. However, Poland has denied them without proper permission from both Poland and the US.
Russia responds
On Thursday (Nov 17, 2022), an official statement from Russia, noted the an outrageous public reaction to the incident in a number of NATO countries. It states: “The Western organisations held “consultations” which gave rise to a new wave of unsubstantiated accusations, which, however, quickly subsided. We see this mayhem as a deliberate effort made as part of a systematic anti-Russia campaign conducted by the West around Ukraine.”
Adding, “At the same time, the speed with which accusations against Russia were made by the Kiev regime is notable. Kiev seems to take every opportunity to blame Russia and to try to consolidate Western support as the Zelensky regime appears to have tired its patrons. In addition, the preliminary data about this incident point to Ukraine.”
According to the official statement, Russia has expressed hope that there will be an impartial investigation and that the results will be shared to expose the facts of the provocation.