South American nation Brazil prepares itself to welcome Lula da Silva once again as its president. The fact that Brazil and the world has already been witness to two previous Presidential terms by Luiz Ignacio Lula da Selva also translates into the fact that it is going to be a difficult act for Lula to recreate his past glory.
In view of the threats from those opposing the president designate for the Presidential inauguration of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on January 1, 2023, the Ministry of Justice and Public Security has authorised the deployment of the National Public Security Force to safeguard the ceremony.
More than 300,000 people including top leaders from across the world are expected to attend the event which will take place at the Ministries Esplanade in the capital Brasilia.
Challenges
Lula da Silva faces the tough challenge of ruling a nation which is politically divided and economically shattered. The outgoing President Jair Bolsanaro is known for his outlandish behaviour. People voted for Lula with an expectation that he will ensure environmental protection, restore welfare systems and seek to bridge the gap that has emerged between the rich and the poor. “Governing Brazil won’t be easy given the political divisions that exist today,” opines Prof Rajan Kumar, School of International Studies, JNU.
According to the JNU Professor “A large number of supporters of Bolsanaro believe that the election was stolen. It is hardly surprising that Bolsanaro is repeating the trick of Donald Trump. He has earned the epithet of ‘mini-Trump’ for behaving like him. The low winning margin of Lula da Silva (50.9%) compared to Bolsonaro (49.1%) demonstrates the divided mandate of Brazil.”
Bolsonaro versus Lula
Bolsonaro represents socially conservative groups which support neo-liberal policies, oppose LGBT rights and follow a disastrous Covid-19 policy. And in contrast, Lula represents left-liberals, progressive and workers.
“He is likely to invest more on education, health and social welfare rather than just physical infrastructure. He ruled earlier twice from 2003 to 2010,” Prof Rajan tells Financial Express Online.
Lula’s Foreign Policy
As far as Lula’s foreign policy is concerned, he is known for advocating quick and substantive reforms in the World Bank, the IMF and other financial institutions. He supports the idea of the solidarity of the Global South. He actively contributed to the creation of BRICS in 2009. In Ukraine, he also blamed President Zelensky for creating the crisis. Brazil is the most powerful country of Latin America with developed agriculture and a solid manufacturing base. A change in the politics of Brazil will have a direct impact on the politics of Latin America.
Lula is also an enthusiastic supporter of the BRICS and South-South cooperation. He will seek to develop close ties with China as well as India. Brazil will host the G20 presidency in 2024, immediately after India’s presidency in 2023. India and Brazil are likely to work very closely in the troika of the G20 which sets up the agenda.
The rise of Lula will not alter the trajectory of global politics. Why?
“His victory is important for two reasons: first, this will put a break on the spread of populist politics which thrives on neo-liberal economic policies and conservative social values, and second, some of the agendas of the Global South will regain prominence,” explains Prof Rajan.
Sharing her views with Financial Express Dr Aparaajita Pandey, Senior Research Associate ShowTime Consulting, says, “The political realities of Brazil, Brazilians, Latin America and the world have transformed irrevocably in past decade, and it would be unfair of people to expect that the mere ascendance of Lula to the proverbial throne would result in an overnight alleviation of the troubles that Brazil faces; however, a couple of things do work in Lula’s favour.”
“The first is that unlike many other heads of state in Latin America Lula still enjoys a considerable degree of voter support and confidence. While many of the Brazilian neighbours are witnessing an utter lack of faith of their citizens in their political and administrative systems as well as their politicians, this is not true for Lula; his legacy as a popular leader and him being an anti-thesis to Jair Bolsonaro has translated into a large section of Brazilians showing faith in him and his abilities as a politician. This means that the window that Lula would have to prove himself as a President who can deliver on his promises is a little wider than other politicians are awarded,” says Dr Pandey who holds PhD from Centre for Latin American Studies, JNU.
In her opinion the second aspect of Lula’s coming term that must be remembered is that while he has quite decidedly been leftist and pro–union, he has never in the past been anti– corporations either. “Lula has attempted to maintain a delicate balance of economic growth and socialist objectives that help in lessening income inequality. One can also expect a greater presence of China in Brazil and in the Brazilian economy as there are conversations around Brazil joining the BRI.”