Earlier this week (Nov 18, 2024), US President-elect Donald Trump revealed his plan to declare a national emergency concerning border security and use the US military to carry out mass deportations of undocumented migrants. Immigration has been one of the most polarizing issues in US politics for years, and Trump’s stance on this topic was a major factor in his successful election campaign. With his victory, Trump has made it clear that addressing illegal immigration will be one of his top priorities in his second term.
A Focus on Mass Deportations and Border Control
During his campaign, Trump made it abundantly clear that he intends to take a hardline approach to immigration. His position centers on significantly reducing the number of undocumented migrants in the US. He recently echoed his position on Truth Social, sharing a post by a conservative activist that stated he was “prepared to declare a national emergency” in response to what he called the “Biden invasion.” Trump’s simple affirmation of this post with a “True!” suggests he is fully committed to executing his plan for stricter immigration enforcement.
Trump’s proposal for mass deportations aligns with his previous rhetoric of securing the US-Mexico border and removing millions of undocumented individuals. His administration will likely focus on increasing border patrols and using military resources to assist with deportation efforts. The tone of his messaging paints the issue as an urgent national security crisis, with Trump frequently describing the large number of border crossings as an “invasion” of the United States.
A Cabinet with Immigration Hardliners
To implement his immigration policies, Trump has started forming a Cabinet that includes staunch immigration hardliners. Among his key appointments is Tom Homan, former acting head of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), who will be designated as his “border czar.” Homan is known for enforcing the controversial “Zero Tolerance” policy during Trump’s first term, which resulted in the separation of families at the US-Mexico border.
Homan’s appointment suggests that Trump’s second term will see a continuation of strict immigration enforcement measures. In a previous address at the Republican National Convention, Homan declared, “You better start packing now,” warning undocumented migrants that they could face deportation under Trump’s policies. This hardline rhetoric signals that deportations will become a focal point of the new administration’s efforts to control immigration.
Consequences for Immigrant Communities
Trump’s proposed immigration measures would likely have significant consequences for millions of people already living in the US unlawfully. The United States is home to an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants, and Trump’s deportation plan could impact as many as 20 million family members, according to some estimates.
The policy shifts could also extend to certain legal protections that allow migrants to stay in the US. temporarily. One such program is Temporary Protected Status (TPS), which currently shields individuals from certain countries facing political instability or natural disasters. Trump has suggested that eliminating TPS for some groups could be part of his broader strategy to address illegal immigration. This could expose many families to the threat of deportation, intensifying fears within immigrant communities.
Indian Migrants and the Growing Trend of Northern Border Crossings
While much of the public discussion around border security focuses on the US-Mexico border, an increasing number of migrants are entering the US via the northern border with Canada. This trend has been particularly noticeable among Indian nationals, many of whom are seeking better opportunities or fleeing difficult conditions in their home country. In fiscal year 2023, for example, US Border Patrol encountered more than 90,000 Indian nationals attempting to cross illegally into the US., a significant increase from previous years.
The Graph No. 1 shows that in 2024 (Oct 23-Sep 24), Indian’s encounters nationwide were 90415 followed by Oct 22-Sep23 were 96917, Oct 21-Sep 22 were 63927 and Oct 2020-Sep2021 were 30662.
Sandeep Wasnik, Director of Grupo 108, explains that many Indian migrants now see the US as an appealing destination due to the presence of established communities and stronger economic prospects. However, this route is not without its dangers. Migrants crossing the US-Canada border often travel through remote, forested areas, which can be perilous, particularly during winter months. In addition to economic factors, Wasnik points out that the increasing number of crossings reflects the growing support networks in US cities that attract immigrants from India and other countries.
Immigration Enforcement Under Trump: A Shift in Focus
While Trump’s previous presidency saw a focus on tightening the southern border, his second term is likely to see an increased emphasis on securing both borders, with additional attention being paid to northern crossings. As Wasnik notes, “An increasing number of people are now entering through the Northern Land Border (US-Canada Border) to travel directly to the United States, where there are better job opportunities and a stronger economy.” This shift underscores the complexity of the immigration issue, as migration routes become more varied and difficult to monitor.
According to the US Customs and Border Protection data, the total number of undocumented migrants encountered by US Border Patrol (USBP) and Office of Field Operations Northern Land Border in FY Oct 2023-24 are 0.198 million followed by FY Oct 2022-23 are 0.189 million as shown in below Graph No. 2.
On the other hand, the undocumented migrants encountered at Southwest Land Border in FY Oct 2023-24 are 2.135 million followed by FY Oct 2022-23 are 2.475 million as shown in below Graph No. 3.
