US President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that India has “substantially” curtailed its oil imports from Russia are yet to be borne out by data. India remained the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in October, importing these goods worth 3.1 billion euros, though the inward shipments were down from 3.6 billion euros in the previous month.
Moreover, crude oil dominated India’s fossil fuel purchases from the sanctions-hit country with a 81% share (2.5 billion euro), followed by coal at 11% (351 million euro) and oil products at 7% (222 million euro), according to latest data by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Crude imports from Russia recorded a 11% month-on-month increase, which corresponds closely to an 8% month-on-month increase in total imports, the think tank said. While private refiners’ imports constituted over two-thirds of India’s total imports, state owned refineries almost doubled their Russian volumes month-on-month in October.
These spikes may be representing the fast-tracked shipping of cargos already contracted, before these companies are to scale down fresh purchases.
India’s purchases of Russian crude oil in September stood at 77% (2.5 billion euro), followed by coal at 13% (452 million euro) and oil products at 10% (344 million euro).
Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery — now under sanctions by the EU and the UK — increased its production to 90% capacity in October. The refinery, after the EU sanctions in July, has been importing crude solely from Russia. In October, Nayara Energy’s imports from Russia recorded a 32% month-on-month increase to their highest volumes since the full-scale invasion, CREA said. Exports from the refinery however have dropped significantly by 47% compared to the same month last year, its lowest levels since May 2023.
The US last month imposed sanctions on Russia’s oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft that largely fund Moscow’s war against Ukraine. The sanctions mark a significant escalation and are poised to reshape India’s crude import strategy, as per analysts.
India, which imports roughly 90% of its crude needs, will face near-term disruption as these sanctions effectively turn the Russian oil molecule—at least from these two entities—into a sanctioned commodity, shifting the market dynamic from influence to enforcement, Kpler had said.
In October, the average price of Russia’s Urals crude fell by 4% to $59 per barrel, remaining above the new price cap of $47.6 per barrel, as per CREA’s analysis.
“While there was an 8% month-on-month reduction in sanctioning countries’ imports from the six Indian and Turkish refineries using Russian crude in October, the decrease was led chiefly by the EU and UK, who recorded monthly reductions of 9% and 73%. By contrast, Australia’s imports in October saw a 140% increase to 93 million euro and US imports also recorded a 17% increase to 126.6 million euro. Both of these are yet to announce a ban on oil products made from Russian crude,” the think tank said.
Russia has become the top supplier of crude oil to India since 2022 post the invasion of Ukraine as Moscow began offering heavy discounts on its crude to offset the Western sanctions and the G7 price cap.
In October, however, the discount on Urals crude narrowed by 4% month-on-month averaging $4.92 per barrel below Brent as against $18-20 per barrel since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As per data from Kpler, India’s import of Russian oil in October stood at 1.62 million barrels per day, down 8% from 1.75 mbd in Oct 2024.
Imports from the US reached 568,000 bpd in October, rising to their highest level since March 2021 and are expected to average 450,000–500,000 bpd in November, compared with a year-to-date average of around 300,000 bpd, Kpler had said.
To offset reduced direct Russian inflows, Indian refiners are now expected to increase procurement from the Middle East, Brazil, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the United States, analysts say.
