El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical pacific for the first time in seven years, setting the stage for a likely surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday said.
“There is a 90% probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023. It is expected to be at least of moderate strength,” Geneva based WMO said.
“The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General, WMO said.
“The declaration of an El Niño by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts on ourhealth, our ecosystems and our economies,” he said
Last week Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general, India Meteorological Department (IMD) had said though El Nino conditions, which adversely impact the monsoon, are likely to develop by the end of July, this could be negated to a large extent by the development of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The overall rainfall (in July) is likely to be over 100% of benchmark long period average (LPA) , with most parts of central India and parts of south peninsula, east, northeast and northwest seen to receive ‘normal to above normal’ rainfall, he added.
“Normal rainfall next month is likely to bridge the deficiency in the precipitation in June to a large extent,” Mohapatra said.
No change has, however, been made to the IMD’s May 26 forecast that the precipitation in the whole of the current monsoon season (June-September) will be in the “normal” range, at 96% of the LPA.
Private forecaster Skymet had earlier said monsoon precipitation this year could be “below normal” at 94% of the LPA. Rainfall between 96-104% of the LPA is considered “normal”.
India, as a whole, has received “below normal” rainfall of 148.6 millimeter (mm) in June, against the LPA of 165.3 mm, a deficit of 10%. Except for the north-west region, all other regions have recorded deficient rainfall this month.
The monsoon, after a four years delayed onset over Kerala coast on June 8, has been in the “active” mode since June 20.
The cumulative rainfall across the country, according to IMD during June 1– July 4 has been 9% less than the LPA. “Intense spell of rainfall likely to continue over south Peninsular India and north Maharashtra till July 6and over Gujarat during July 6-8,” IMD said in its forecast on Tuesday.