Along with the lives, the coronavirus pandemic may cost India $150 billion in the current year 2020. The nationwide lockdown and standstill businesses in the April-June quarter caused the economy to shrink by 17 per cent till May, said a research report by the World Bank. It added that the GVA in the calendar year 2020 is likely to contract by 5.1 percent, going by the trend so far. However, it further said that the actual growth will depend on whether the economy will continue to be held back by the Covid-19 pandemic; whether it will revert to previous levels; or whether it will overshoot to compensate for forgone activity during the lockdown.
In the research carried out on the basis of daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity, the World Bank said that both electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity can provide a measure of economic activity in India. The findings suggested that the economic impact of the lockdown was not equal across states, districts, and cities, and the impact of the lockdown varied across them. The heterogeneity was related to the economic structure of the states and the migration patterns.
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However, it was also found out that a larger number of Covid-19 infections resulted in a larger decline in nighttime light intensity in cities, but not in states. While nearly all the cities reported a fall in light intensity in April 2020, the contraction ranged from 16.8 per cent in Nagpur to 0.5 per cent in Pune. In Delhi, the nighttime light intensity shrank by 13 per cent. However, in Kolkata and Patna, the light intensity did not decline at all. The World Bank has revealed a positive correlation between Covid-19 cases per million residents and the decline in light intensity. Having more than 50 cases per million residents is associated with a 15 percentage points larger decline in light intensity.
