Goldman Sachs said it sees a 50 percent probability of Prime Minister Theresa May getting a Brexit divorce deal ratified, adding that lawmakers would ultimately block a no-deal exit if needed. Unless May can get a Brexit deal approved by the British parliament, then she will have to decide whether to delay Brexit or thrust the world’s fifth largest economy into chaos by leaving without a deal.
Goldman said it saw the probability of a no-deal exit at 15 percent and the probability of no Brexit at around 35 percent. “There does exist a majority in the House of Commons willing to avoid a ‘no deal’ Brexit (if called upon to do so), but there does not yet exist a majority in the House of Commons willing to support a second referendum (at least at this stage),” Goldman said in a note to clients on Friday.
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“The prime minister will repeatedly try to defer the definitive parliamentary vote on her negotiated Brexit deal, and the intensification of tail risks will continue to play a role in incentivising the eventual ratification of that deal.”
