The maximum temperatures during next three months will remain above-normal over east, central, north-east and some parts of north west region, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast on Tuesday.
The Met department has predicted ‘normal to below normal’ maximum temperatures during March-May period over remaining parts of the country.
“The monthly maximum temperatures for March 2023 are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country except peninsular India where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely,” SC Bhan, scientist with IMD, said in a briefing.
He also said that the minimum temperature in north-west parts of the country during March 2023 is expected to be above normal.
However, the Met department has stated that there is a ‘weak’ probability of occurrence of heatwaves in March over central India as witnessed last year which had adversely impacted the wheat crops.
Bhan said that in February, the maximum temperature rose by 3-6 degrees higher than normal in northern and northwest India.
The Met department also stated that rainfall pattern in March 2023 averaged over the country is likely to be normal (83-117% of benchmark long period average).
Region-wise, below normal rainfall is most likely over most areas of northwest India, west central India and some parts of east and northeast India.
“Normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of peninsular India, east central India and some isolated pockets of northeast India,” according to IMD.
Bhan said that the El Nino is currently at the neutral level and its impact will be assessed when the IMD will issue the first monsoon forecast for the current year in the middle of April.
The Met department forecast comes a day after private weather forecaster Skymet said that the above-normal temperature that has prevailed for most part of the current month will continue for the next four months, while “the summer months of April, May and June are expected to be searing, with mercury climbing to record levels,”.
The likelihood of scorching summer heat could be damaging for the wheat crop which has just entered the flowering stage. Lower wheat output could also lead to a depletion of the official stocks of the grain.
Stating that the current month will be recorded at ‘hottest on record’, Skymet had said that “prolonged intemperate conditions are construed as pernicious for most rabi crops over the northern, central and eastern parts of the country”.
Last week, the agriculture ministry set up a committee to monitor the impact of hot and dry weather conditions on standing wheat crops.
For the current crop year (2022-23), the government has estimated a record wheat harvest of 112.18 MT. Total area planted with wheat crop has risen by only 0.13 million hectare (MH) to 34.32 MH in the current crop year from the year-ago period.
The wheat stock position is seen to be only marginally above the buffer by April. The Food Corporation of India’s wheat stocks are expected to plummet to 9.5 million tonne (MT) or below by April 1, the lowest since 2017. The buffer for April 1 is 7.4 MT.
The country is already experiencing elevated cereal inflation (16.1%) in January, 2023, while the wheat inflation was 25% last month.