There is intense global interest in how India and China, the two most populous nations in the world, would attempt to repair bilateral ties after a deadly border clash five years ago. In his first visit to China in seven years, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a bilateral meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin. This much-awaited meeting carries forward the processes set in motion when they last met at a BRICS summit in Kazan last October to address the imperative of peace and tranquillity on the Sino-Indo border and tasked their special representatives to oversee border management. As a result, India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, held two rounds of discussions during the last nine months. In his bilateral meeting with Xi, Modi noted the progress on this front that after disengagement, “an atmosphere of peace and stability is now in place”. But the goal is to have de-escalation and de-induction as the presence of a large number of troops on the border is not conducive for normal relations.
Beyond tariffs: A thaw in ties
Contrary to international speculation, the timing of Modi’s trip to Tianjin had nothing to do with US President Donald Trump’s tariff disruption. The thaw in Sino-India relations began much earlier after the Kazan meeting between the two leaders. But quiet borders definitely presage progress on a number of issues like the resumption of direct flights between the two countries, the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage, reopening border trading posts, and visa facilitation for people-to-people contacts. Both sides have initiated discussions on sharing data related to trans-border rivers. In Tianjin, both leaders recognised the role of their two economies in stabilising global trade, besides underlining the need to proceed from a strategic direction to expand trade and investment ties and reduce the trade deficit—that hit $100 billion last fiscal—according to India’s ministry of external affairs. When Wang Yi visited New Delhi to meet his Indian counterpart in August, there were indications that Beijing would allow shipments of rare earths, fertilisers, and tunnel boring machines. This would definitely improve the atmosphere for bilateral ties with India, perhaps considering allowing more Chinese investments.
Elephant and dragon: Finding balance
Kazan to Tianjin definitely sets the tone for a reset in Sino-India relations, which are predicated on peace and tranquillity on the border. Unfortunately, there are no easy solutions for the fraught border situation. Over the long haul, it can be resolved by narrowing the economic power differential between India and China. Although India is the world’s fifth largest economy, China is six times larger as the second largest economy. This is reflected in relative military strength, with India in a disadvantageous position to resolve the issue through force. China sees India only as a weaker neighbour.
A dance between the elephant and dragon will be the appropriate policy choice when the relative economic power differential narrows over time. Nevertheless, the coming together of two great neighbours represents an international public good; that it is a historical necessity for both to work together to uphold the interest of the Global South. Both must examine a common ground on bilateral, regional, and global issues at a time when a rules-based international order is being undermined. Both nations must uphold multilateralism and a multi-polar world, besides promoting peace and prosperity in Asia.