The most consequential leaders of the world today are Mr Donald Trump and Mr Xi Jinping. Others are Mr Vladimir Putin and Mr Benjamin Netanyahu. For good or bad, their words and actions have an impact beyond the borders of the countries of which they are Heads of Government/State. Mr Narendra Modi would like to be among them — his party claims that he is already one of them — but the reality is different.
Economic realities
India’s economy is puny (in terms of size) compared to America’s or China’s. In comparison with Russia and Israel, in terms of per capita income, India’s is tiny. Here is the data:
| Country | Size of GDP | Per capita income |
| (in approximate nominal USD in 2025) | ||
| USA | 30.51 trillion | 89,000 |
| China | 19.23 trillion | 13,800 |
| Russia | 2.54 trillion | 17,500 |
| Israel | 0.6 trillion | 54,000 |
| India | 4.19 trillion | 2,900 |
America’s economy is 7 times larger and China’s is 4.5 times larger than India’s. India may be the fastest growing large economy but even doubling the GDP will take 10 years from now. In the meanwhile, even at a smaller growth rate (but on a larger base), the GDP of U.S. and of China would become bigger and the absolute gap in GDP between India and U.S. and between India and China may grow wider. Russia and Israel may have a smaller GDP but they are richer and their per capita income is 6 times and 18 times, respectively, greater than India’s. The math is known to every leader of the world, except India’s current rulers!
The G-2 surprise
The world respects India because it is the most populous country, and for its democracy, history, ancient culture, role as a peace-maker, market size and potential — not because India is a superpower. The countries of the world have a stake in trade and regional peace. Hence, they will engage with both India and Pakistan notwithstanding India’s position that ‘if you are India’s friend, you have to be hostile to Pakistan’.
Besides, the world is changing rapidly. In 2023, India trumpeted that it was the host of the G-20 Summit. The G-20 meeting and Leaders’ Summit are an annual event and the host country is decided by rotation. Brazil was the host in 2024, South Africa will host the meeting/Summit in November 2025 and the U.S. will be the host in 2026. Hosting the G-20 is no big deal; no other country makes a hoo-ha about it.
G-8 and G-7 are more significant than G-20. Now, we have something new — G-2. Before and after his meeting with Mr Xi, Mr Trump elevated Mr Xi to the status of an equal, something which he will never do to Mr Modi. Mr Trump was effusive, Mr Xi, as usual, enigmatic. Whatever India may say about a multi-polar world, there are only two superpowers in the world, with Russia closely behind. Yesterday’s “existential threat to U.S. security” has mysteriously vanished. With the new bonhomie, QUAD will fall by the wayside.
Do a reality check:
The U.S. has concluded a mini-trade agreement with China on rare earths and soyabean, and the two countries are likely to resolve the Tik-Tok issue. The U.S.-India trade agreement has been negotiated through 2025 but there is no conclusion yet.
There was a tariff war between the U.S. and China (each imposing retaliatory tariffs on the other) but, after the meeting at Busan, the leaders have apparently agreed to a truce on matters including technology transfers, export controls and port fees, and both countries will ease the tariffs mutually. The U.S. has made no move to ease the punitive tariffs on India.
U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms remain; so will sanctions on Indian companies if they buy Russian oil.
America has curtailed preferential access to China’s goods; equally, the revocation in 2019 of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) that India enjoyed seems final.
IN THE COLD
Mr Modi last met Mr Trump on February 14, 2025. Subsequently, there were three occasions when a Modi-Trump meeting could have taken place. First, after the G-7 Summit in Canada, Mr Trump invited Mr Modi to ‘stop over’ in Washington, but Mr Modi declined; I think rightly. Second, when Mr Modi did not travel to Egypt for the signing of the Gaza peace agreement. Third, the ASEAN Summit and Related Summits in Kuala Lumpur in October 2025 but, inexplicably, Mr Modi decided to address the gathering virtually; I think wrongly. It is widely believed that Mr Modi is keen to avoid a bilateral meeting or even a conversation with Mr Trump.
For the umpteenth time, Mr Trump has claimed that he had used the ‘no trade’ threat to compel India and Pakistan to stop the war, and the war was stopped on the fourth day. Mr Modi has not denied the claim publicly or in Parliament. Besides, Mr Modi has never told Mr Xi in his face that Chinese troops had intruded into Indian territory and they remain illegal occupiers.
The embrace between Mr Trump and Mr Xi has left India in the cold, along with Japan, Australia and Taiwan. India is practically friendless in South Asia. West Asian countries are forging new arrangements among themselves and with Israel, without India. It is time to acquire some humility and go back to the policy drawing board.
