It’s an action packed day for the markets. Two stocks are going to be replaced on the Sensex, effective Monday. The 30-share Benchmark will see defence major BEL and Tata Group’s retail star Trent replacing Nestle and IndusInd Bank on the exchanges. While the rejig is slated for Monday, the effective flows adjustment is expected to be seen in trade today.

A few other Sensex constituents may also see weight reduction–led outflows. Historically though, Sensex inclusions tend to see intra-day upmoves, supported by stronger volumes, and a similar trend could play out this time as well.

Sensex Inclusion: BEL, Trent

BEL

Estimates by key brokerage houses like Nuvama and IIFL Capital Service indicate that the BEL inclusion ma lead to flows around Rs 3,000 crore . This is well over 2x its average daily volume. BEL, along with other defence stocks have seen significant upmove in the past few weeks. The share price is up a whopping 10% in the last 1 month and gained 35% so far in 2025.

The company’s orderbook surpasses Rs 71,000 crore as of April, 2025. That apart the company has been a key beneficiary of the DRDO’s tech transfer and bagged several long-term orders. According to the UBS report in May, the order book is likely to grow at 17% between FY25 and FY28 on a compounded basis. This is up from the earlier estimate of 8%.

Trent

The Tata Group stock, Trent is also likely to see significant inflow on the basis of the Sensex inclusion. This is also expected to clock-in inflows close to Rs 3,000 crore. The IIFL Capital Service estimates indicate that inflows could be around $304 million, roughly 4.6 times the average daily volume. The share price is up 5% in one month though for 2025 so far its returns are negative, down over 18%. However, key brokerage houses like Jefferies, Motilal Oswal and Nuvama see significant upside potential, as much as 30% from current levels and they have a Buy rating on the stock

Trent picked up the pace of store addition in H2FY25. The company added 40 stores in the Westside format and 244 stores in the Zudio format this year on a gross basis and consolidated 24 stores in each format. . Trent has also doubled down on its store additions in Metro areas to improve customers’ experiences as well as cater to peak demand where throughput is lost due to higher rush and waiting times

Sensex Exclusion: Nestle, IndusInd Bank

Nestle

Nestle’s exclusion from the Sensex could lead to outflows nearing $220 million as per IIFL Capital Services. This is almost 8x the average daily share volume. The share price is 7% in 2025 so far.

The company’s board is set to meet on June 26 to consider issuing bonus shares. As per the annual report released last week, Nestle India is set to invest Rs 5,000 crore. India is currently the largest market for the company’s key product Maggi and second-largest for Kitkat.

IndusInd Bank

The stock is set to exit Sensex on June 23. The exit is expected to result in outflows of nearly $134 million, approximately 1x its average daily share volume. The share price has been battered significantly in the past few months following the accounting discrepancy and action there-in. It is down 14% in 2025 so far.

However the share price saw significant upside yesterday following the Nomura upgrade on the stock. The brokerage house sees potential for 25% from current levels for the share price.