Rupee is expected to depreciate on Monday amid strong dollar and on anticipation that robust employment report may force the US Fed to quickly withdraw economic stimulus by raising interest rate in potentially larger intervals. Meanwhile, ease in crude oil prices and rise in risk appetite in the global markets may prevent further downside in Rupee, according to ICICI Direct. The local unit on Thursday ended 0.16% higher than previous close at 75.79 against the dollar as crude prices fell.

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

“Rupee consolidated in a narrow range but traded with a positive bias against the US dollar as talks progressed between Russia and Ukraine to end their weeks-long conflict. On Friday, the dollar gained against its major crosses after data showed the economy added 431,000 for the month, while unemployment rate was 3.6%. This week, on the domestic front, market participants will be keeping an eye on the RBI policy statement and expectation is that the central bank could keep rates unchanged. Inflation remains a major concern for most central banks across the globe and investors expect that inflation could spin out of control and the RBI is already behind the curve on tackling inflation. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 75.60 and 76.20.”

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities

“USDINR 27April futures contract showed weakness last week and slipped below 76.0600 levels. On the weekly technical chart a pair is unable to cross its resistance level of 76.5500 and slipped again. Looking at the technical set-up, a pair is only sustain above 76.3500 could show strength else it could test its support level of 75.7000 again. We expect a pair to trade in the range of 75.7000-76.3500 and either side breakout of the range could give further directions.”

Tapish Pandey, Research Analyst, SMC Global Securities

“Rupee is likely to start on a weaker note on the first trading day of the new financial year following the strong dollar move after latest US jobs data confirmed a strengthening US economy. Ahead of RBI policy later this week, we think rupee may slide towards 76.40 in coming days amid domestic rate setters likely to keep policy stance unchanged which may lift dollar higher vs rupee. Overall trading setup is indicating sideways trend and hold above its support zone of 75.50 levels. On higher side, rupee is facing resistance of its short term moving average near 76.23 levels, sustain above which may turn to positive. For the day, we are looking USDINR April future to trade in range of 75.80 to 76.23 levels with sideways trend.”

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