The south-west monsoon has swept in through the Kerala gateway to the Indian peninsula on Friday, four days late. The anticyclone (high-pressure) area, which was holding back the westerlies that steer in the monsoon, has faded out, according to the Met centre.
“Rainfall is likely to get more intense in the next two days,” says Dr K Santhosh, director, Met centre, Thiruvananthapuram. “Out of the 14 rainfall monitoring centres in Kerala, more than 70% of the stations have reported rainfall above 2.5 mm for consecutive 48 hours,” he said.
The announcement of the monsoon onset has been just a formality, as most parts of Kerala have been receiving rains since Friday morning. And now that the southwest monsoon has set in, it is counted to advance northwards, in surges. Monsoon is expected to cover the entire country by around July 15.
“Monsoon has further advanced into entire south Arabian Sea, some more parts of central Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep area and Kerala, some parts of coastal and southern interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, remaning parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of central and northeast Bay of Bengal,” says the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) statement.
The conditions are right for further advance of the monsoon into some parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, some more parts of Rayalseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh, and northeast India in the next 48 hours, says IMD.
On June 2, IMD had scaled down this year’s June-to-September monsoon rainfall forecas due to El Nino. El Nino, a phenomenon marked by warmer surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, raises the possibility of droughts in the Asia-Pacific region, including Australia, Southeast Asia and even the Indian peninsula.
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