Gold prices appear to be on track to make history, with prices approaching levels unheard of in the past. Gold is inching towards the $4,000 per ounce mark in the international market, having risen by 50% so far in 2025.
Gold’s $1,000 Jump
Gold has gone parabolic in a short period of time. Gold price today is $3,965, up from $3,000 on April 1. The last $1,000 jump in gold prices has come in just about 210 days.
Between October 2009 and January 2024, gold rose from $1,000 to $2,000 over a period of nearly 15 years. However, it only took 14 months for it to increase by another $1,000, reaching the $3,000 milestone around March 14.
Peter Schiff, Chief Economist and Global Strategist at Europac, is of the view that gold prices will rise significantly.
In April 2024, Schiff on X said, “From 2000 to 2011, the gold price rose from below $400 to above $1,900. That was a 5x move. A similar move from the $2K breakout will send gold to $10,000. Given the far weaker fiscal position of the U.S. now and potential for larger QE, the next move should happen much quicker.”
Gold prices have jumped by $1,000 in just over 7 months, or roughly 210 days, from $3,000 to $4,000.
Gold Bull Run in 2025
Central banks have been the prime movers behind the bull run in gold prices that started in 2022. According to the World Gold Council, following a pause in July, central banks returned to buying in August by adding a net 15 tonnes to global reserves.
Gold continues to witness a bullish undertone in 2025. The recent rise in gold prices is on the back of the US government shutdown, driving investors towards this safe-haven asset amidst concerns over an extended US shutdown.
Downside Risks
The downside risk to the gold price is looking more prominent now. The precious metal has already realized much of its upside potential and now appears slightly overbought, according to most analysts. Most technical analysts believe that the majority of indicators on technical charts lead to a pullback in gold prices.
However, the reasons that have pushed the gold price higher by 50% over the last 12 months still exist. On top of those factors, the US debt burden situation appears to be worsening.
The U.S. economy may lose approximately $7 billion in activity for each week of a shutdown, with estimates from a White House memo indicating potential losses could reach up to $15 billion weekly.
Trump tariffs and global trade wars are already posing new challenges for the US dollar. The dollar index is down almost 10% so far this year.
With the US Fed looking to cut rates in the months ahead, the support for gold doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon.
Van de Poppe, Cryptocurrency analyst, wants investors to be cautious on gold. On October 1, Poppe on X wrote, “A massive monthly candle on Gold. It’s up 47% for the year, while the average is between 6-8% on a yearly basis. Very unusual occasion, and I think that we’re going to see a significant correction.
Will it be this month or later in the year? We’ll see. Strong bullish chart, but not the best time to be buying into this asset.”
During an interview with “The Lead-Lag Report,” Schiff offered an ambitious forecast for the precious metal, reports Yahoo Finance. “If gold can go from $20 an ounce to $2,600 an ounce, it can go from $2,600 to $26,000, or to $100,000,” he stated.
Gold’s Dominance Over Fiat Currency
The loss of trust in fiat currencies printed by global central banks is driving gold’s domination over other assets and currencies.
And, even central banks did realize it. For the last 3 years — 2022, 2023 and 2024 — central banks have bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold in each year.
The bull market for the Emperor of Assets, gold, began in late 2022 and has since smashed the Euro and US Treasuries.
Now, gold accounts for 20% of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves, more than 16% of Euro holdings. Dollar holdings continue at 46%, the highest, but are gradually dropping. For the first time since 1996, global central banks’ foreign exchange holdings of gold have surpassed their holdings of US Treasuries.