US CPI Data Expectations: US CPI data for November is to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on December 18. The Consumer Price Index for November 2025 is scheduled to be released on December 18, 2025 at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.
Following the release of September US CPI data on October 24, BLS skipped the October Consumer Price Index report due to the longest US shutdown in history.
It remains to be seen whether some components of the October CPI will be available when the report for November is published on Thursday.
According to economists surveyed by Dow Jones, the US CPI is expected to show a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%, while core CPI is forecast to post an annual rate of 3.0%, reports CNBC.
September US CPI data
The US CPI rose 3% for the 12 months ending September, after rising 2.9% over the 12 months ending August. The core inflation, which reflects all items less food and energy, also rose 3%over the last 12 months.
With inflation not yet under the comfort zone of 2% for the US Fed, the November inflation data will become critical for the market.
November US CPI data
The importance of the November US CPI data is two-fold. One, any uptick or stickiness in inflation numbers will deter the US Fed from cutting rates aggressively in 2026.
Two, not resorting to rate cuts means keeping rates higher for longer, which in turn may damage the economy. Already, the job market is showing signs of cracking with unemployment jumping to 4.6% and wage growth slowing down.
US Fed dot plot released recently, already points to one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027. If November inflation trends lower, an aggressive rate cut scenario may still emerge in 2026.
Fed chair Powell has reiterated in several of his speeches that US Fed FOMC members decide based on the incoming data. Interestingly, Powell retires as Chair in May 2026 but will remain on the board of governors. Trump is likely to announce the next US Fed chair anytime soon.
