Uttarakhand is know for its two-party polity where the BJP’s gain have come from the Congress’ loss and vice versa. The firstv round of the ABP-CVoter survey for the upcoming polls in the state has predicted a comfortable win for the BJP.
While the BJP is expected to win around 44-48 seats in the 70-seat state assembly, the Congress could end up winning 19-23 seats. The dip in the BJP’s seat share, which bagged a massive 57 seats in the 2017 state elections, can be credited to the anti-incumbency factor and the criticism of the state government over its handling of COVID situation and its decision to organise the Kumbh Mela amid the pandemic.
While the Congress’ seat share is projected to go up, it will nowhere be enough for the Grand Old Party to turn the tables in the hill state. On the other hand, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party, which has announced that it will contest the elections in Uttarakhand, is expected to win two seats.
The BJP faced a crisis in the state when the party leaders questioned Tirath Singh Rawat’s way of working and demanded change in leadership. Dhami had taken over as CM from Rawat in July. Tirath Singh Rawat had himself replaced Trivendra Singh Rawat but was asked to resign in four months.
The BJP has ruled Uttarakhand thrice and Congress twice since its formation as a separate state. The BJP has also had the most number of Chief Ministers.
On the other hand, the Aam Aadmi Party sees Uttarakhand, along with Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, as gateway to Arvind Kejriwal’s ambitions of expanding his party’s footprints.
National politics has a major role to play when it comes to Uttarakhand with 46.5 per cent of people saying that they would vote for PM Narendra Modi in the 2024 elections. What is interesting is that in second place stands Kejriwal with 14.6 per cent votes, beating Rahul Gandhi at 10.4 per cent.