The reputation of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar precedes him. A leader who has mastered the art of changing governments without once losing chief ministership, Nitish has set off fresh buzz over his return to the National Democratic Alliance and forming a new government, possibly with the Bharatiya Janata Party’s support.

Nitish Kumar’s overtures to the BJP may have been evident only with his lavish praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi for honouring socialist icon and former Bihar CM Karpoori Thakur with the Bharat Ratna, but his efforts to return to the NDA began much earlier. While Nitish’s growing unease within the INDIA bloc was cited as the primary reason when the JD(U) first approached the BJP, the JD(U)’s own understanding of political benefit was one of the triggers that set the ball rolling.

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The BJP’s huddles in Bihar and in the national capital in the past 24 hours have revealed a sharp divide over the idea of allowing Nitish back into the NDA fold. While the final decision has been left to the party’s top leadership, the opinion remained split with some leaders warning of Nitish switching sides again, possibly before the Bihar Assembly elections due in 2025, sources told Financial Express Online.

Nitish Kumar’s image of taking abrupt U-turns on alliances in the near past has been one of the key factors cited by this group of leaders, the sources said, adding that the BJP’s chances of improving its Lok Sabha tally from 17 in the last elections were better without Nitish in the fold. The party’s top leadership also has to contend with differences between LJP’s Chirag Paswan and Nitish while finalising terms with the JD(U).

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The other section of the BJP, however, feels that a decision should be taken political advantage in mind. Nitish brings with him a lethal mix of non-Yadav OBCs and extreme backward classes votes which could prove handy for the NDA which is aiming to win all 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar this time. Nitish’s return to NDA will also deal a severe blow to the INDIA bloc which was conceptualised and stitched together by the Bihar CM.

Another benefit the BJP sees in allowing Nitish’s return is the damage it could do to the Congress and the RJD by taking away the caste card, their most prominent poll plank. Importantly, it was the caste census in Bihar under Nitish’s guidance that led to the demand for a pan-India exercise by the Opposition. With Trinamool Congress, Aam Aadmi Party and the Shiv Sena already flexing their muscle, the weaning away of Nitish from the ‘secular’ INDIA bloc could throw the Opposition grouping in complete disarray.

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On the other hand, Nitish also sees the tie-up as a win-win situation. His growing disenchantment with the INDIA bloc became evident when a proposal by CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury, backed by others, to appoint the Bihar CM as the convener was shot down by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi at the last meeting of the alliance in Delhi on January 13. Nitish had not taken kindly to the development and made his displeasure felt when he stormed out of the meeting.

With the future uncertain within a disjointed INDIA bloc, Nitish also saw the possibility of benefitting from a combination of PM Modi’s popularity, the Ram Temple wave and the mix of state and central schemes. Nitish’s fear of preventing a split within the JD(U) was another factor at play behind the sudden move. While some JD(U) leaders were in touch with the BJP, Nitish dealt with a firm hand when he removed Lalan Singh as party president over his growing proximity with RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav.