Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious target of winning over 400 of the 543 seats in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections has proven to be a “smart move” for the ruling dispensation, poll strategist-turned-political activist Prashant Kishor said on Tuesday, claiming that it has changed the nucleus of electoral discussions from 272 to 400 seats.
In an interview with NDTV, Kishor said that the slogan helped the BJP change the election discourse, allowing it to comfortably shift the discourse from the BJP winning 272 seats, the number required to gain a majority in the Lower House, to 370 or 400 seats.
“In the last three-four months, the discussion has centered around ‘370’ and ‘400 paar’… This has benefitted the BJP… Now, no one is saying Modi ji will lose, they are saying they may not get 370 seats,” Kishor said, attributing it partly to BJP’s strategy and to the Opposition’s weakness.
Kishor has consistently maintained through the run-up to the elections that the BJP would return to power at the Centre with Prime Minister Modi set to continue for a third consecutive term. The poll strategist maintained his prediction for June 4, saying the BJP would come back to power when the results are announced on June 4.
“For the past five months, I have been saying that no matter how you assess the elections, it seems Modi-led BJP is returning. They may get the same numbers as last election or do slightly better,” he said. The BJP had secured 303 seats on its own in the 2019 general elections and has set a target of winning 370 seats in the ongoing polls.
“We should look at the fundamentals. If there is anger against the incumbent government and its leader, there is a possibility that regardless of whether there is an alternative, people may decide to vote them out. So far, we have not heard that there is widespread public anger against Modiji. There may be disappointment, unfulfilled aspirations, but we have not heard of widespread anger,” he said.
Kishor said that there is an absence of widespread anger against the incumbent or a clamour for somebody who is a challenger. “We have not heard anything like things will be better if Rahul Gandhi comes. His supporters may say that, but I am talking about a more widespread level.”
Kishor maintains that for the BJP to be voted out of power, the Congress and its allies need to do significantly better in the North and West regions of India, accounting for around 325 seats, which continue to be seen as BJP strongholds.
if BJP has to lose, you need to see if they have suffered any material damage in the North and West. My assessment is that it has not. But in the East and South, its vote share and seats are likely to increase,” Kishor said, adding that status quo or a status quo with a positive bias in favour of incumbent is expected.
“I see little chance of BJP’s score going down,” he added.