What began as a lackluster affair devoid of any agenda or interest, Lok Sabha elections 2024 have gathered momentum and triggered anticipation over the likely outcome on June 4 when the Election Commission of India announces the results. BJP’s slogan of ‘Abki Baar 400 paar’ and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘wealth redistribution’ and ‘minority appeasement’ charge against Rahul Gandhi’s claim of ‘Constitution under threat’ and a promise to overhaul the current reservation structure based on a pan-India caste census are what have defined the elections so far.
As the crescendo peaks with just two phases of polling left, expect the rhetoric to level out only when the Lok Sabha election results are declared on June 4. While the Election Commission of India bars the telecast or publishing of any opinion poll or exit poll data during the conduct of elections, the Phalodi Satta Bazar in Rajasthan remains the only barometer for anyone looking to get a sense of which way the wind is blowing.
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At the onset of the seven-phase elections, the grey market had bet on 340-350 seats for the BJP. This was revised to 303 seats ahead of the third phase of elections and 292-296 seats ahead of the fourth round. With polling over in five phases and only two phases remaining, the Phalodi Satta Bazar has revised its estimates upwards for the BJP again.
As per the fresh estimates that come a day ahead of the sixth phase of elections, the BJP is predicted to win 304-306 seats alone while the NDA’s tally could reach 325-330 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, is projected to win 60-62 seats, up from earlier projections of 52-57 seats, as per Phalodi Satta Bazar predictions.
As per the Phalodi Satta Bazar, the BJP-led NDA could see its tally drop in states like Bihar, Haryana, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. On the other hand, the NDA’s tally may improve significantly in West Bengal and Karnataka, and see marginal gains in Tamil Nadu and Odisha.
In Rajasthan, for instance, where the NDA won all 25 seats, the BJP is expected to see a drop of 5 seats in its tally to finish at 19-20 seats. In Bihar too, where the NDA swept 39 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats, the Phalodi Satta Bazar expects a damage of around 10 seats for the BJP. A similar damage of 10 seats is also projected in Maharashtra where the NDA bagged 41 of the 48 seats.
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On the contrary, the BJP is expected to win 22 seats in West Bengal, up from its tally of 18 seats in the 2019 polls, according to the Phalodi satta bazar. As per grey market estimates, the BJP is projected to win 63-65 seats in Uttar Pradesh, 25 seats in Gujarat, 28-29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 5-6 seats in Delhi, 2-3 seats in Punjab, 20-22 seats in West Bengal, 4 seats in Himachal, 10-11 seats in Chhattisgarh, 5 seats in Uttarakhand, 28-29 seats in Bihar, 8-9 seats in Telangana, 10-11 seats in Jharkhand, 11 seats in Odisha and 19-20 seats in Rajasthan.
According to betting market predictions, the BJP is expected to secure between 304 and 306 seats across the country, while the National Democratic Alliance may win between 324 and 329 seats. The odds for Prime Minister Narendra Modi forming a government for the third time are currently between 15 and 20 paise. Lower odds indicate a higher probability of winning.
(DISCLAIMER: Gambling is illegal unless permitted by state-specific laws. Readers are advised to stay away from it. The purpose of this news item is only to present the prevailing trends in the betting market. Financial Express Online does not vouch for the factual correctness of these projections or promote or endorse betting markets in any manner.)
