The southwest monsoon may hit Kerala earlier than predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), given its fast progress, said an expert.
“The monsoon is rapidly progressing at the moment. It has already covered the entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands region five days ahead of its schedule, whereas it is a week ahead of its schedule over Sri Lanka,” Akshay Deoras, research scientist, National Centre for Atmosphere Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom, told FE.
Deoras said conditions for its onset over Kerala will become favourable from May 24. “After onset, it will rapidly progress across southern India, especially along the west coast. It will reach Karnataka, most of Tamil Nadu, and parts of Andhra Pradesh well before 31 May,” he said.
Earlier, IMD had forecasted that the southwest monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast on May 27, five days earlier than the usual onset date of June 1.
The forecast of early arrivals of monsoon by the met department comes with a model error of +/- 4 days.
“Heavy to very heavy rainfall over west coast — Karnataka, Konkan & Goa and Kerala and adjoining Peninsular India — is expected during May 18-24, 2025,” IMD said on Sunday. These rains, prior to the actual arrival of monsoon, are referred to as pre-monsoon showers.
The met department also stated that conditions are favorable for further advancement of the southwest monsoon over some more parts of south Arabian Sea, Maldives, Comorin area (southern tip of India) and south, central and northeast regions of Bay of Bengal during the next 2-3 days.
Typically, the monsoon, after onset over Kerala coast in early June, covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains start gradually receding from the northern region in the middle of September.
In 2022, the monsoon arrived over Kerala on May 29.
During June-September, the country receives over 75% of its annual rainfall.
The adequate rainfall boosts hopes of robust agriculture-sector output for a second year in a row, as kharif sowing, which starts with the onset of rainfall, accounts for about 60% of the crop production. Monsoon rains also provide soil moisture for the winter crops.
Last month, IMD predicted “above normal” monsoon rainfall during June-September this year, with 89% chance of the rains being in the “normal-to excess” range.
In terms of regional distribution, the met department said ‘above-normal’ rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, except the northeast, parts of Bihar and Tamil Nadu.
