The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday predicted that the southwest monsoon is likely to make landfall in Kerala by May 27, a few days before than the unusual onset date of June 1. If this happens, then it will be marked as the earliest arrival of the monsoon over mainland India since 2009. As per the IMD record, during that time, it made an advancement as early as May 23, as reported by PTI.
Southwest Monsoon likely to arrive by May 27 in Kerala
Normally, the southwest monsoon makes an arrival in Kerala around June 1, and then it slowly spreads across the country. On the other hand, the withdrawal phase usually commences from northwest India around September 17 and get over by October 15.
According to IMD parameters, seasonal rainfall falls under ‘normal’ when it ranges between 96% and 105% of the long-period average, which is 87 cm measured over the last 50 years.
In its seasonal outlook released last month, IMD projected a favourable monsoon for 2025, with rainfall expected to be above the long-term average. The weather department dismissed the influence of El Nino, a climate phenomenon that is connected with reduced monsoon activity across India.
IMD predicts above normal rainfall
M Ravichandran, Secretary of Ministry of Earth Sciences mentioned, ”India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September), with cumulative rainfall approximated at 105 per cent (with a model error of 5 per cent) of the long period average of 87 cm,” as quoted by PTI.
These early indications of a robust monsoon are seen in a positive light for agriculture sector and water resource planning.
An official from the Weather Department has clarified that the timing of the monsoon’s arrival in Kerala does not have a direct impact on the overall rainfall received all over the country during the season.
The official explained that monsoon depends on various factors like local climate conditions, global weather patterns and regional dynamics. He mentioned, ”The early or delayed onset over Kerala does not necessarily determine the speed of pattern of its spread to other regions.”