India is expected to experience an above-normal monsoon this year, according to the latest forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This development brings a wave of optimism for the agriculture sector and the broader economy, as agriculture contributes around 18% to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and supports the livelihoods of more than 42% of the population.
The monsoon, which typically begins in Kerala around June 1 and withdraws by mid-September, is crucial for the country’s farming activities. According to PTI, 52% of India’s net cultivated land depends entirely on monsoon rains. Moreover, the seasonal rainfall plays a vital role in replenishing reservoirs that supply drinking water and drive hydroelectric power generation.
IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that cumulative rainfall during the four-month monsoon season is likely to be 105% of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm. This projection is based on current climatic patterns, with El Niño conditions — often linked to weak monsoons — expected to remain absent this year.
However, climate experts caution that an above-normal monsoon doesn’t necessarily ensure consistent rainfall across the country. In recent years, while the total rainfall may appear healthy on paper, its distribution has become increasingly erratic.
The frequency of heavy rainfall over short durations has been rising, contributing to a growing pattern of floods in some areas and droughts in others — a clear signal of the changing nature of the Indian monsoon.