The country is likely to receive ‘above normal’ rainfall in September, the last month of the monsoon season (June-September), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.
The met department also stated that rainfall over the country as a whole in September 2025 is most likely to be ‘above normal’ at above 109% of the benchmark – long period average (LPA). Rainfall in the range of 106-110% is categorised as above-normal.
“Most parts of the country are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in September with exception of some parts of northeast and east India, many areas of extreme South Peninsular India where rainfall would be below-normal rainfall,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, said at the briefing.
Flood, landslide risks in hilly states
Surplus rainfall in the norther-western region next month may impact parts of agricultural lands in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan where rainfall during August was hugely surplus at 34% above the benchmark,and has inundated some parts.
Mohapatra warned that heavy rainfall may trigger landslides and flash floods in Uttarakhand in September and could disrupt normal life in south Haryana, Delhi and north Rajasthan.
“Many rivers originate in Uttarakhand. So, heavy rainfall means many rivers will be flooded and it will impact cities and towns downstream. So, we should keep this in mind,” he said.
He added that heavy rainfall is also expected in the upper catchment areas of the Mahanadi River in Chhattisgarh.
Boost for kharif output and reservoirs
According to IMD, rainfall between June 1 and August 31 stood at 743 mm, which is 106.1% above the LPA or ‘above normal’ range.
Regions – northwest (26.6%), central India (8.7%), and south peninsula (9.3%) — have received surplus adequate rainfall so far while east and north-eastern regions have received deficit rainfall of 17.8% against the benchmark
Rainfall in June, July and August, 2025 was 109%, 105% and 105% of the LPA, respectively, Mohapatra said.
He said the withdrawal of the monsoon which used to commence from Rajasthan from September 1 has been shifted to the middle of September in the last few years which implies it is likely to withdraw from the entire country by October 12. Mohapatra reaffirmed IMD’s earlier forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall at 106% of the LPA for June–September.
Meanwhile, the met department in its forecast has predicted ‘heavy rainfall’ to continue over Northwest India for next few days and heavy rainfall to continue over Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat Region and Coastal Karnataka during next seven days.
The above-normal rainfall has bolstered hopes of a robust agriculture sector output for the second year in a row.
Farmers have completed sowing in over 98% of the normal area of nearly 1,09.7 million hectare as of August 22. Overall, sowing of kharif crops – paddy, pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane, cotton and coarse cereals – has gone up by 3.5% on year.
Adequate rainfall during August and September are crucial for boosting the yield for kharif crops as well as ensuring that reservoirs are adequately filled.
Water levels in India’s 161 major reservoirs surged above 83% of their capacities, with the country receiving above normal monsoon rainfall so far.
The government has set a record target of 354.64 million tonne of food grains production for the 2025-26 crop year (July-June).
The met department also ruled out occurrence of El Nino weather patterns which adversely impact rainfall till the end of monsoon season and may continue into winter of 2025-26.
The monsoon officially set in over the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal onset date of June 1.
The IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall at between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90% and 95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of the LPA is termed ‘deficient’. Rainfall in the range of 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’.
