India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon Deficient monsoonseason (August and September), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday. Overall rainfall is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) in the next two months.
Rainfall prediction
“Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country during August–September, except parts of northeast, east India, some regions of central India and south peninsular India where below-normal rainfall is likely,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, said at a briefing.
Rainfall in June and July 2025 was 109% and 106% of the LPA, respectively, Mohapatra said. However, for August, the overall precipitation, according to the met department, will be in the range of 94-106% of the LPA.
The prospects of above-normal rainfall have bolstered hopes of a robust agriculture sector output for the second year in a row.
Farmers have completed sowing in 76% of the normal area of nearly 1,09.7 million hectare as of July 25. Overall, sowing of kharif crops – paddy, pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane, cotton and coarse cereals – has gone up by 4% on year.
Experts POV
Experts said adequate rainfall during August and September is crucial for boosting the yield for kharif crops as well as ensuring that reservoirs are adequately filled.
Water levels in India’s 161 major reservoirs surged close to 70% of their capacities, with the country receiving 6.5% surplus monsoon against the benchmark rainfall.
According to the Central Water Commission, these dams as on Thursday were filled 69.3% of their combined capacity of 181.461 billion cubic metre (BCM) at 126.482 BCM. Water levels were up over 49% on year, and 50% above the last 10-year average for this point in time.
The government has set a record target of 354.64 million tonne of food grains production for 2025-26 crop year (July-June).
The met department also ruled out occurrence of El Nino weather patterns which adversely impact rainfall till the end of monsoon season and may continue into winter of 2025-26.
The monsoon officially set in over the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal onset date of June 1.
The IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall at between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90% and 95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of the LPA is termed ‘deficient’. Rainfall in the range of 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’.