Bihar Election Exit Poll Results 2025 Live Updates: When will the first analysis come out?

An opinion poll conducted by C Voter on Friday indicates a closely fought contest in the run-up to the Bihar elections, with the BJP and Janata Dal (United)-led NDA holding a 40% probability of returning to power. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan trails narrowly, securing a 38.3% chance of forming the next government, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj — a new entrant in the state’s political arena — stands third with 13.3% voter preference.

The race tightens further when voters were asked about their preferred chief ministerial candidate. RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav emerged as the frontrunner, drawing 36.5% support.

The Election Commission of India closely regulates exit polls to ensure that elections remain free of undue influence. By law, no exit poll may be conducted, published or broadcast while voting is underway. This embargo applies from the start of the first phase of polling until 30 minutes after the final phase concludes. For the 2025 Bihar elections, that means exit polls will be announced after 6.30 pm today.

Any violation of these rules can result in penalties, including fines or imprisonment of up to two years. Media organisations must also explicitly state that exit poll figures are projections, not actual results.

Key battles in the Bihar Election 2025 are shaping up across crucial constituencies, especially in the second phase involving 122 seats. Several notable key contests include:

– Raghopur: Famous as the seat of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s family, Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) is a key figure contesting here, with BJP fielding Satish Kumar as his main opponent

– Seemanchal region (Purnia, Araria, Kishanganj, Katihar): A politically sensitive and vital area with a large Muslim population, heavily campaigned by all major parties including BJP, RJD and Congress, making it a critical arena in phase 2

– Chakai (Jamui district): Sumit Kumar Singh (JD(U), NDA) vs Savitri Devi (RJD). Singh, the Science and Technology Minister, is seeking re-election against the former MLA Savitri Devi, making this seat a significant clash of established leaders

– Parihar (Sitamarhi district): A three-cornered fight between Gayatri Devi (BJP, NDA), Ritu Jaiswal (Independent) and Smita Purbe (RJD). The constituency recently received national attention due to a major temple renovation announced by Amit Shah

– Madhuban (Champaran): BJP’s Rana Randhir faces a tough contest against RJD’s Sandhya Rani along with a third candidate from Jan Suraaj party. Another multi-cornered contest

– Tarapur (Munger district): Samrat Choudhary (BJP) is contesting against Arun Shah (RJD). This constituency has a complex caste mix with large Yadav, Muslim, upper caste, Kushwaha, Sah and Dalit populations

Several major agencies including Axis My India, CVoter, IPSOS, Jan Ki Baat and Today’s Chanakya have conducted these surveys by interviewing voters across different districts. The exit polls aim to estimate vote shares and seat projections for key alliances, primarily the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Nitish Kumar and the opposition Mahagathbandhan led by Tejashwi Yadav.

The 2015 Bihar Assembly election remains one of the most striking examples of how exit polls can misread the state’s volatile political landscape. That year, archrivals the RJD and JD(U) set aside decades of hostility to form the Mahagathbandhan with the Congress, while the NDA-led by the BJP contested alongside the undivided LJP, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM(S).

Ahead of the results, an average of six major exit polls predicted a razor-thin victory for the Mahagathbandhan, estimating that it would just cross the majority mark of 122 by a single seat, and placing the NDA close behind with 114. But the actual verdict stunned political observers. The RJD-JD(U)-Congress alliance swept the polls with 178 seats, securing a commanding majority, while the NDA collapsed to just 58 seats.

Most pollsters failed to capture the scale of the Mahagathbandhan wave. On average, exit polls underestimated its seat tally by 55 seats and overestimating the NDA’s by 56. The CNN IBN–Axis survey came closest, projecting 176 seats for the alliance and 64 for the NDA.

Despite this emphatic mandate for the RJD-JD(U) partnership, the coalition unravelled just two years later, when Nitish Kumar broke away in 2017 and returned to the NDA to form a new government with the BJP.

The Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) on November 4 released its assessment of the candidates contesting the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections, examining the self-sworn affidavits of 1,297 out of 1,302 nominees. The analysis reveals that nearly one-third of these candidates have declared criminal cases against themselves.

According to the report, 415 candidates (32%) face criminal charges, while 341 (26%) are accused in serious offences, including murder, attempted murder, kidnapping, assault, corruption, bribery and other non-bailable crimes carrying potential sentences of five years or more. READ MORE

The latest voter turnout in the second phase at 1.30 pm was recorded at 47.62%. The exit polls will follow post the voting is over at 5 pm.

The 2020 Bihar election exposed just how unpredictable the state’s political landscape can be. While the exit polls misread the mood on multiple fronts, it did offer important lessons for analysts this time around.

– Caste equations, hyper-local issues, shifting alliances and last-minute loyalty flips make Bihar’s electorate one of the most complex. Exit polls in 2020 failed to capture how effectively the NDA consolidated votes. It overstated the opposition’s strength

– Many surveys may have leaned too heavily on urban or semi-urban respondents, under-representing rural pockets that ultimately played a decisive role. Non-representative sampling led to distorted projections

– High rural turnout — particularly in NDA-leaning regions — proved decisive in 2020. These late surges and election-day swings often slip through the cracks of exit poll models

– Voters sometimes choose candidates tactically — to block another alliance or based on hyper-local grievances. Such motivations frequently defy neat survey categories and throw off predictions

– Exit polls that leaned too much on past voting patterns missed evolving local dynamics and district-level issues that shaped last-minute voter choices

Exit polls are carried out by speaking to voters immediately after they cast their ballots, with the goal of estimating election outcomes based on whom they say they voted for. Their accuracy, however, depends on factors such as sample size, methodology, margin of error and whether respondents answer honestly.

While not always precise, exit polls provide an early read on voter sentiment and often shape political debate and public expectations in the period between polling and the declaration of official results. The results for the Bihar assembly elections will be announced on November 14.

The actual results contradicted most exit poll predictions.​ Ultimately, the NDA led by Nitish Kumar narrowly won, securing 125 seats against the Mahagathbandhan’s 110.

Exit polls in 2020 substantially overestimated the Mahagathbandhan’s prospects and underestimated the NDA’s performance.

Most exit polls for the Bihar Assembly Election 2020 predicted a victory for the Mahagathbandhan led by Tejashwi Yadav or projected a hung assembly. The last exit poll projected a tough contest for the NDA (BJP-JD(U) alliance).​

Key exit poll predictions 2020:

ABP News-CVoter: Mahagathbandhan 108-131 seats, NDA 104-128 seats, LJP 1-3 seats, Others 4-8 seats. CVoter’s survey suggested a close race and possible hung assembly​

Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat: Mahagathbandhan 118-138, NDA 91-117​

India Today-Axis My India: Mahagathbandhan 139-161, NDA 69-91. This survey projected a big win for the opposition alliance​

Times Now-CVoter: NDA 116, Mahagathbandhan 120, LJP 1, Others 6​

News18-Today’s Chanakya: Mahagathbandhan 180 (±11), NDA 102 (±11).

Poll of Polls: Mahagathbandhan 133, NDA 100, Others 11 (average of major exit polls)​

In the ongoing polling in Bihar, 31.38% of 3.7 crore voters have exercised their franchise till 11 am. The first phase of the state polls saw a record high voter turnout of 65.08%. It was the highest ever for the state in an assembly election so far.

The second and final phase of Bihar Election 2025 is currently underway. Polling in 122 constituencies will end at 5 pm today. Keeping in line with the ECI guidelines, the exit polls will be published once the voting is concluded. The exit poll analysis will start coming in from 6.30 pm.