Bihar Election Exit Poll Results 2025 Highlights: Today’s Chanakya gives clear victory to NDA, Axis My India keeps hopes alive for MGB

Bihar 2025 Seat Projection – Today’s Chanakya

BJP+ 160 ± 12 Seats

RJD+ 77 ± 12 Seats

Others 6 ± 3 Seats

Today’s Chankaya has predicted a wider gap in voter share in Bihar.

Vote Projection

BJP+ 44% ± 3%

RJD+ 38% ± 3%

Others 18% ± 3%

Today’s Chanakya has begun sharing its exit poll numbers. The data, it said, suggest the backward castes have voted for NDA while ‘MY’ formula seems to be in check for the RJD.

Brahmin, Baniya & Rajput

BJP+ 63% ± 3%

RJD+ 19% ± 3%

Yadav

BJP+ 23% ± 3%

RJD+ 67% ± 3%

Muslim

BJP+ 12% ± 3%

RJD+ 69% ± 3%

SC

BJP+ 58% ± 3%

RJD+ 26% ± 3%

OBC & EBC

BJP+ 55% ± 3%

RJD+ 24% ± 3%

On Bihar exit polls, RJD leader Shakti Singh Yadav said these are not exact.

“There are people conducting exit polls whose own profiles are not in order… Now they are going to decide the future of Bihar. The exit results will be out on the 14th of November… Tejashwi Yadav will be sworn in on 18th November… The walls of caste and religion were broken. There was only one dream, of change. Bihar is moving towards change. The BJP is scared…” he said.

Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD emerges as the winner of Bihar election with 67-76 seats and 24% vote share.

Yet, the NDA seems to have the slight edge over the MGB. If this turns into real numbers, smaller parties might be the kingmakers.

Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD likely to emerge as the single largest party with majority share (24%) of vote.

Beating the trend, the Axis My India has projected at close battle between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan.

It has predicted 121-142 for the NDA, and 98-118 for the Mahagathbandhan.

Out of Mithilanchal’s 58 seats, the MGB is likely to get 25 while the NDA is projected to get 32 seats.

In Bhojpur, 21 seats likely to be with MGB and 27 with NDA – showing a close contest between the two alliances.

The crucial region of Seemanchal is going with the MGB with the alliance projected to win 15 of 24 seats, and with a vote share of 40%.

The AxisMyIndia’s exit poll data shows that 34% of voters want Tejashwi Yadav as CM while only 22% want Nitish Kumar back.

This means that Tejashwi’s popularity has grown among the people of Bihar.

Axis My India exit poll suggests that 45% women voted for NDA and 40% for MGB, where as only 3% went for Jan Suraaj Party.

The Axis My India exit poll suggest that educated voters have gone for the MGB, while those less educated have chosen the NDA and Nitish Kumar.

Axis My India exit polls suggest youths of age group 18-29 are majorly going for the Tejashwi Yadav-led MGB.

Axis My India has projected a neck and neck contest as far as vote share is concerned between NDA and MGB.

On Tejashwi refusing to accept exit polls, Bihar Minister Nitin Nabin said, “Let Tejashwi refuse to accept the exit polls, at least that way, he might get a good night’s sleep.”

“He can enjoy his dreams for another 48 hours, but after that, all those dreams will be shattered,” he said.

The exit poll projections some of the key pollsters would begin from 5:30 pm.

Stay tuned to this page for the live coverage.

Speaking on the IANS-Matrize exit poll for the Bihar Assembly elections, Purnia MP Pappu Yadav said that after five o’clock, these people already decid within half an hour whose government will be formed next.

“Previously, in 2020, whose government was being formed? In Haryana, whose government was being formed? You all show in three crore votes how many votes each party actually received. In AIIMS, not a single seat is being won, while in Simanchal, the maximum seats won are 7–8. In 2022, only 8 seats were won…” he said.

Today’s Chanakya will release its exit polls as mentioned below:

Bihar Caste Analysis at 7 pm

Bihar Vote Projection at 7:10 pm

TProjection at 7:20 pm

Several pollsters released their exit poll numbers on Tuesday. However, four big names in the industry — Axis My India, Today’s Chanakya, CVoter and Jan Ki Baat will release their projection numbers today after 5:30 pm.

On Bihar exit polls, Janshakti Janata Dal chief and candidate from Mahua seat, Tej Pratap Yadav said he does not believe in them and could not say anything about Nov 14.

“I am winning the Mahua seat…Jashn ki tayari nahi, hum kaam ki tayari karte hain…” he added.

On the exit polls, RJD MLC Qari Sohaib said that in 2015 exit polls, it was claimed the BJP would form a government with a two-thirds majority, and even firecrackers were burst at the BJP office.

“In 2024 (Lok Sabha elections) , the media had already given them ‘400 paar’. So, none of this matters. Rest assured, the government will be formed under the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav,” he said.

RJD MLA Alok Kumar Mehta said that whenever there is a high voter turnout, it usually signals a desire for change.

“And change happens only when the people want it. This should be seen as support for the INDIA alliance,” he added.

Tejashwi Yadav has slammed media for the exit polls that predicted NDA’s comfortable victory in the Bihar elections.

“This time, the NDA did not even announce an official Chief Ministerial candidate. You can see that the so-called ‘godi media’ that conducted these surveys is the same media that has previously misrepresented information from Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi. These surveys are part of a propaganda strategy by certain agencies under PM Narendra Modi, aimed at creating psychological pressure on people and officials during counting day…” he said.

Preparations for find victory celebrations are being planned at JDU candidate Anant Kumar Singh’s residence in Mokama.

Tents have been set up and arrangements made to serve around 40,000 people.

RJD leader and Mahagathbandhan’s Chief Ministerial candidate, Tejashwi Yadav said that exit polls were conducted at direction of top BJP leadership.

“Exit polls that projected NDA”s victory in Bihar conducted at direction of BJP”s top leadership,” he said.

“If there is any fraud during vote counting this time, the public will give a strong response. Flag marches will achieve nothing. If anyone tries to destroy democracy, the people of Bihar will not allow it…” Tejashwi added.

The exit polls, if are to be believed, project that Jan Suraaj is unlikely to win even 10 seats. If proves to be true, the mandate will be a huge setback for the poll strategist-turn-politician.

Read full story here

JD(U) leader Neeraj Kumar said that no one claim to know exact Bihar election exit polls.

However, he said, since the percentage of women voters has increased significantly, “we believe that the work done for women and the efforts to bring positive change in their lives will bear fruit. “

“The Rashtriya Janata Dal, which took money from liquor companies through electoral bonds, will now have to face the anger of women. Tejashwi Yadav ji, no matter how many claims you make it is definite that you are going to lose,” he said.

Andhra Pradesh Congress committee VP V. Gurunadham said the exit polls are merely attempts to “estimate outcomes”.

“All exit polls predict an NDA win and retention of power in Bihar. However, these predictions are not based on scientific methods—they are merely attempts to estimate outcomes, not the truth. Pollsters often approach a few voters, who may give false responses, and draw conclusions from this…” he said.

According to Poll of Polls, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is projected to win a whopping 152 seats seats. The Mahagathbandhan is expected to be a distant second merely 84 seats. The Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj Party likely failed to make a dent in the polls.

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JD(U) spokesperson Rajeev Ranjan said that women’s large participation has always been in favour of the NDA.

“We have seen unprecedented voting; whenever women have participated in large numbers, results have been in our favour,” he said.