What Bihar election exit polls looked like in 2015 and 2020

Bihar assembly election exit polls 2025: The leaders of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) rejoiced on Tuesday as pollsters projected their comfortable return to power in Bihar, with a majority giving them at least 130 seats. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB), as expected, has rejected the numbers. Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and MGB’s CM candidate, Tejashwi Yadav on Wednesday rejected the exit polls, saying these were conducted at the direction of top BJP leadership.

“The people of Bihar know the truth. They will try to take attempts to slow counting. If anyone tries to steal votes or undermine democracy, the people of Bihar will resist even if sacrifices are needed. We will not allow fraud in counting; our supporters are alert and determined. These so‑called surveys are pushed by ‘godi media’ and certain agencies cannot hide the public mood,” he said while attacking the poll agencies and the media in a presser.

One important thing about exit polls are they are suggestions, and can be wrong as well. There have been times when the exit polls have proven to be wrong and on some occasions, just the opposite. While people will have to wait for Nov 14 to see if the exit polls this time are true, the last two exit polls can still be analysed.

Exit polls 2025: NDA’s sure win prediction

Almost all the exit polls have projected a clear victory for the CM Nitish Kumar-led NDA in Bihar. The majority of them gave the ruling coalition at least 130 seats, and the majority mark of 122 in the 243-seat assembly. The projection for the RJD is positive, but less than the last time and if all the numbers prove to be true, the Congress might end up seeing a huge embarrassment.

Here’s what the 2025 projections say about Bihar elections

Bihar election exit poll 2020: Did pollsters get it right?

The 2020 elections were quite interesting. Nitish Kumar had flipped sides multiple times then, and nobody knew he would do it again. But yet, it was the NDA vs MGB battle then. The projects were in MGB’s favour, however, it was NDA who ended up forming the government.

The shock was that the pollsters predicted 80-90 seats for the NDA, which ended up getting 125.

Bihar election exit poll 2020:

Bihar election 2020 results:

What Bihar election exit polls said in 2015?

A thin margin victory for Mahagathbandhan was what the exit polls said in the year 2015. Over six such polls gave MGB the benefit of doubt. But the actual numbers disproved the exit polls. Then, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) was with the RJD and Congress.

The so-much believed to be neck-and-neck became a one-way battle as MGB swept polls with 178 seats. 

Bihar election 2015 exit polls:

Bihar election 2015 results:

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