Bihar election 2025: As Bihar heads into one of its most crucial elections, four key leaders stand at the centre of the storm – Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav, and of course, Rahul Gandhi. While the battle has lately intensified with strong verbal jabs, it’s mostly because each of the leaders enters the Bihar Assembly 2025 Elections with a lot riding on the stake.
From maintaining their power and legacy to building a political future, the risks are significant. The outcome will not just decide Bihar’s next government, but also shape India’s wider political scenario. Let’s break it down.
PM Narendra Modi: A battle to consolidate BJP’s grip on power
As Bihar heads to the polls on November 6 and 11, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken charge of the NDA campaign like a skipper leading his team into a crucial match. Much like his strategy in Maharashtra and Haryana, Modi is steering the BJP-JD(U)-LJP alliance with full force, leaving the Mahagathbandhan struggling to keep pace.
But there might be broader play in effect. In Karnataka, BJP had toppled the Congress-JDS coalition government through defections, a strategy known as ‘Operation Lotus,’ to gain direct power and weaken regional party influence. The PM might be doing the same thing in Bihar, as was clear from its equal seat allocation between JD(U) and BJP. Winning these elections could maximise BJP’s influence by positioning itself as the principal party, possibly to shape post-election government formation, or to assert greater control over the state. This could be motivated by the desire to have a more direct role in Bihar’s governance and to reduce reliance on JD(U)’s leadership.
Winning in Bihar is quite significant for Modi because it will help the BJP consolidate power in the state, maximise electoral influence, and position itself as the dominant force in Bihar politics. This reflects a pattern seen across other states where BJP aims to control or supersede regional allies to ensure a stable, central control over governance post-elections, especially in electorally crucial states like Bihar.
If we talk about the scenario where the BJP loses, then it’s quite evident that it is the NDA alliance that will take the first hit, which won’t be good for PM Modi, as this could turn out to be a major gain for the Opposition in coming years.
Rahul Gandhi: A test of relevance and reclaiming lost ground
The upcoming Bihar election is being seen as a key test for Rahul Gandhi’s political strength and his ability to turn active campaigning into real results. His “Voter Adhikar Yatra” and alliance with RJD and other partners under the Mahagathbandhan banner have made Bihar one of the most closely watched contests this season.
For Rahul, a win here would mean more than just victory in one state. It would help rebuild Congress’s lost ground in Bihar and prove his potential as a strong national leader who can unite the Opposition. The last time Rahul Gandhi won an election was in 2020 Lok Sabha polls. It has also been a long time since Congress won with a major margin. It happened in the Karnataka state election in 2023 when the party secured 135 out of 224 seats. However, in the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections, Congress failed to win any seats, even though its vote share went up slightly. So, Congress’s most recent major wins were the 2023 Karnataka elections and the 2024 general elections.
Clearly, Rahul needs to secure his ground in Bihar and show that he can connect with the state’s complex social mix, including the Yadavs, Kurmis, and Extremely Backward Classes, groups that often end up being the Kingmakers and decide who comes to power.
However, the stakes are equally high if things don’t go his way. A loss would be a serious blow, deepening the impression that Congress continues to lose relevance in Bihar, a state where it once dominated but has now been overtaken by regional forces like RJD and JD(U).
It would also raise fresh doubts about Rahul’s leadership within his own party. Some Congress leaders have already expressed concern about his limited visibility earlier in the campaign, and a poor result could lead to louder criticism.
Nitish Kumar: A win for legacy
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar faces one of the biggest battles of his political life. This contest is not just about staying in power — it’s also about proving that both he and his party, the JD(U), still have a strong place in the state’s fast-changing politics.
Over the years, Nitish Kumar has built his career on reforms, welfare programmes, and several surprising alliance changes that earned him the nickname “Paltu Ram.” His political journey has seen many ups and downs, but this election feels different, the pressure is greater than ever.
If he wins, it will add to his image as the leader who brought stability and development to Bihar after the turbulent “jungle raaj” years.
His supporters credit him for better roads, improved law and order, and stronger governance since he first became chief minister in 2005. But his critics say that his government has failed to tackle key problems like rising unemployment, poor healthcare, and the migration of workers to other states. These issues, they argue, have taken away much of the shine from his earlier achievements.
PM Modi’s recent rally in Samastipur made it clear that Nitish has a key role in NDA’s choice for chief ministerial face. The endorsement signals that the central government continues to back him, seeing his leadership as key to the alliance’s chances in Bihar. So it’s pretty clear that if the NDA wins, Nitish will once again cement his place as Bihar’s tallest leader and secure his position within the alliance. But if the results go the other way, it will mark the end of an era. A defeat would not only damage Nitish’s long-held grip on power but also shake the JD(U)’s future, creating tensions within the NDA.
For Nitish, the Bihar elections are about more than numbers, it’s about legacy. The man once credited with ending Bihar’s “Jungle Raj” now faces the toughest question of his career – can he convince voters that he is still the steady hand that Bihar needs?
Tejashwi Yadav: A fight as much against Nitish as against his own legacy
The upcoming elections can prove to be a turning point in Tejashwi Yadav‘s political life. Winning would prove that he can stand on his own, beyond the long shadow of his father, Lalu Prasad Yadav. The alliance already believes so as every rally, slogan, and promise made by the Opposition has been built around him. In fact, he has positioned himself as the man who can bring change and a new kind of leadership to Bihar.
His campaign slogan and manifesto are packed with similar promises like more jobs for youth, fair pay for contract workers, empowerment schemes for women, and welfare for minorities. It is clear that he is trying to build a broader support base that covers caste and religion, something his father once mastered in.
The assembly election, however, is not going to be an easy fight. Tejashwi’s biggest rival is the experienced Nitish Kumar, who has been in power for nearly two decades and is backed by the BJP-led NDA. The contest is being seen as a battle between continuity and change, between an older generation that speaks of stability and a younger one that promises transformation.
For Tejashwi, a victory would be a huge breakthrough and will prove that the RJD can still command Bihar’s politics after Lalu’s exit. But the stakes are equally high if he loses. Even as, losing the elections will be a major setback for both Tejashwi and the Mahagathbandhan. It could weaken his credibility as a leader and raise questions about whether he can truly take forward the RJD’s legacy. Discontent may rise within the alliance, with some raising questions on his political judgment and ability to build a winning coalition.
A loss would also strengthen Nitish Kumar and the NDA, allowing them to claim that Bihar still trusts their model of governance and development. Either way, Bihar in the upcoming elections will decide not just who runs the state, but who defines its political future.
