A surge in monsoon rains over the past ten days, after a ‘deficient’ spell in the first half of August, has pushed cumulative rainfall for the June–September season to 104% of the benchmark-long period average (LPA) or upper limit of normal range.According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall between June 1 and August 24 stood at 674 mm, which is 103.6% above the LPA or ‘normal’ range.
Monsoon’s impact on agriculture and water resources
Region-wise, northwest India (15.4% above LPA), central India (9.5% above LPA), and the southern peninsula (5.7% above LPA) have received adequate precipitation, while the east and northeast remain in deficit at 16% below LPA.
During June–July, cumulative rainfall was 106% of LPA, classified as ‘above normal’.Out of 738 districts, 175 have recorded deficient rainfall this season, concentrated mainly in Assam (26), Uttar Pradesh (25), Bihar (23), Tamil Nadu (11), Arunachal Pradesh (6) and Meghalaya (6). The remaining 538 districts received precipitation in the ‘normal’ to ‘excess’ range between June 1 and August 17.
The IMD classifies rainfall between 96–104% of LPA as ‘normal’, 90–95% as ‘below normal’, and below 90% as ‘deficient’. Rainfall in the 105–110% range is considered ‘above normal’. The LPA is the 1971–2020 average of 87 cm.
Regional disparities and future forecasts
On Sunday, the IMD said, “Heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely to continue over Gujarat, Rajasthan, over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana over the next one week. Increase in rainfall activity likely along the west coast from 26th August, 2025.”For the second half of the season (August–September), the IMD has projected ‘above normal’ rainfall at 106% of LPA, though rainfall in August is expected to stay within the ‘normal’ range of 94–104%. In May, the department had reaffirmed its forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon at 106% of LPA, with a 90% probability of rainfall falling in the “normal-to-excess” range during the season.
Adequate rainfall in the second half is crucial for kharif crop yields and for ensuring adequate reservoir storage. Water levels in 161 major reservoirs rose to 77% of capacity as of August 21 — 7% higher than last year and 19% above the 10-year average.
Farmers have completed sowing across 95% of the normal kharif area of 109.7 million hectares as of August 15. Overall acreage under paddy, pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane, cotton and coarse cereals is 3.7% higher year-on-year.The monsoon had officially set in over Kerala on May 24, eight days ahead of the normal onset of June 1, marking the earliest arrival in 16 years. Typically, the southwest monsoon covers the entire country by July and begins withdrawing from north India around mid-September.