The US government’s decision to end the H-1B lottery system and move to a wage-weighted selection framework is expected to disproportionately benefit large US-headquartered technology companies that recruit specialised talent and are willing to pay higher salaries, according to industry experts.
By linking selection odds to compensation levels, the revised mechanism favours firms that hire for senior, niche and high-end digital roles, reinforcing the ability of US technology majors to draw skilled professionals from overseas markets such as India. The change shifts the emphasis from volume-based filings to fewer, higher-value applications, with pay emerging as a proxy for skill depth.
Odds of Success
Data from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services shows that US Big Tech firms have consistently been among the largest users of the H-1B programme. Companies such as Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft rely heavily on overseas professionals for advanced engineering, cloud, AI and platform roles.
Between October 1, 2024 and September 30, 2025, Amazon accounted for 13,265 H-1B visas, while Meta secured 6,294. In comparison, Indian IT services firms such as Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys availed 6,133 and 2,856 visas, respectively.
“The main benefit will accrue to US technology companies hiring in India. Since weightage now skews towards higher-skilled and higher-paying roles, these firms can continue to attract top talent, provided they are willing to pay a premium,” an IT analyst said.
For Indian IT services companies, the policy change is unlikely to be disruptive. Instead, it reinforces a structural shift already under way. Over the past few years, these firms have steadily reduced their reliance on H-1B visas as slowing global demand, automation and changing client expectations pushed delivery models away from onsite-heavy cost arbitrage towards offshore, nearshore and outcome-led execution.
“Since the initial announcement on higher fees for fresh applications, Indian IT majors have repeatedly highlighted their reduced dependence on H-1B visas, backed by scaled-up nearshoring and offshoring strategies,” the analyst said. “For US tech firms, however, hiring from India remains critical, and this framework allows that at a higher wage threshold.”
TCS has in the past said that in the current fiscal year it expects to avail around 500 H-1B visas, nearly a tenth of the number used in FY25. Tech Mahindra has also similarly flagged limited impact from visa changes, citing sustained efforts to hire local talent in the US through partnerships with educational institutions.
Structural Decoupling
That transition has eased concerns around margins. Earlier fears of a sharp profitability hit from higher visa costs have moderated after clarity that elevated fees apply only to new applications, not renewals or existing visa holders. Analysts now expect firms to manage incremental pressure through workforce planning and delivery mix changes rather than see a material margin shock.
“This would have been a major shock if Indian IT companies were still dependent purely on cost arbitrage. Their models are now shifting towards productivity- and output-led delivery, driven by AI adoption and persistent macro uncertainties,” an industry expert said.
The wage-weighted system also changes filing behaviour. By reducing the incentive for bulk applications, it is likely to narrow the pool of overseas entrants to fewer, more experienced professionals. Senior specialists stand to gain, while junior or lower-paid roles face a higher hurdle under the annual cap, marking a structural recalibration of how foreign tech talent enters the US labour market.
