India’s economy is likely to expand by around 7 per cent in FY26, marginally higher than the 6.6 per cent growth projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October. This is as per Gita Gopinath, former chief economist of the IMF.
Speaking at the Times Network India Economic Conclave 2025, Gopinath said the IMF’s earlier projection was made before stronger-than-expected official data became available.
Q2 growth outperformed IMF expectations
“The IMF number was 6.6 per cent that came out in October,” Gopinath said. “But their forecast for the second quarter of the current fiscal was much lower than what it actually turned out to be, at over 8 per cent.”
India’s economy expanded 8.2 % in the July–September quarter, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) earlier this month, significantly beating the IMF’s assumptions at the time of its forecast.
Forecasts likely to adjust with new data
Gopinath indicated that the stronger quarterly performance could push India’s full-year growth closer to 7 %, underscoring how quickly projections evolve as new data flows in.
“Forecasts are always conditional on the information available at the time,” she said, adding that the September-quarter surprise “naturally changes the overall growth arithmetic” for the fiscal year.
