India’s Russian crude oil imports are expected to see a sharp decline in December, falling to 1.2 million barrels per day from 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, a Kpler report said. The think tank stated that while the Russian oil import in the month will be lowest since December 2022, it reflects short-term disruptions rather than a structural shift in sourcing patterns.
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler said that India’s appetite for Russian crude cooled sharply in December, with imports falling to their lowest levels since 2022 as major refiners cut intake following sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil.
“This appears to be a near-term adjustment, with Russian crude imports into India expected to recover gradually from January as new intermediaries step in and supply chains re-establish,” Ritolia added.
Reasons for import drop
The drop in India’s import of crude oil from Russia is primarily driven by disruptions resulting from the United States’ action on top Russian exporters Rosneft and Lukoil, Russian oil-linked tariffs and pressure from the US on India, as well as due to the impact of EU sanctions on Russian-linked product flows.
Kepler report stated that the decline is largely driven by reduced intake from major buyers, particularly Reliance Industries and the New Mangalore refinery, both of which have significantly scaled back Russian crude purchases during the month.
Following the US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as refiners including Reliance Industries, Hindustan Petroleum, HPCL-Mittal Energy, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, Russian imports were temporarily halted. The only exception is Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy, which continues to rely heavily on Russian crude after EU sanctions curtailed alternative supplies.
Alternative routes
In December, Indian refiners shifted their sourcing to non-designated Russian entities and alternative suppliers across the Middle East, West Africa, and the Americas. Additionally, Indian refiners continue to purchase Russian crude from non-sanctioned entities.
“Russian oil itself is not sanctioned; the suppliers are. That is why non-designated producers can legally step in to fill part of the gap created by the Rosneft/Lukoil restrictions,” Ritolia added.
He stated that December’s headline drop only tells part of the story.
“Beneath the surface, Russian crude flows into India are increasingly being rerouted through a growing web of intermediaries, traders, and logistical workarounds. While direct purchases have softened, the underlying demand signal remains intact, and Russian barrels are expected to retain a structural presence in India’s crude slate given pricing economics, refinery compatibility, and limited near-term alternatives,” he said.
The report added that, as alternative sellers such as Tatneft, Redwood Global Supply, Rusexport, Morexport, and Alghaf Marine expand their trading footprint and assume the commercial role previously played by Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s exports should largely return to normal, with volumes gradually reappearing through these new channels.
The Kepler report highlighted that Russia remained India’s largest oil supplier; however, its share fell to less than a quarter of all oil imports from about a third in November.
