A new analysis from JPMorgan Chase is raising alarm about the impact of the Trump administration’s H-1B visa overhaul on the American workforce.
Published Tuesday, the report predicts that the United States could see as many as 5,500 fewer work authorisations each month, as companies deal with the hefty $100,000 fee for each new H-1B application, according to Business Insider.
JPMorgan warns visa fee could cut monthly work authorisations
JPMorgan economists Abiel Reinhart and Michael Feroli reached this estimate by examining the 141,000 new employment petitions filed in fiscal year 2024. Roughly 65,000 of these petitions were processed at consulates abroad, making them the most likely to be impacted by the new fee, the report said.
“If all of them were to stop, it would reduce work authorisation for immigrants by up to 5,500 per month, unless immigrants are able to use other visa categories to get employment,” the economists wrote in their note.
The report also added the potential long-term effects on foreign students and early-career professionals. “It is possible that this change will make it less attractive for foreign students to come to the United States to study,” the report warned. “It could reduce this population’s post-graduation job opportunities in the US.”
The Trump administration signed the executive order on Friday, branding it as a measure to keep American jobs in domestic hands. The sudden policy change sparked panic with confusion in corporate boardrooms and concern among young professionals about both short- and long-term career prospects.
Impact on Indian professionals
Nearly half of last year’s top 50 H-1B visa beneficiaries were consulting firms. About 70% of H-1B visas in 2024 were awarded to workers from India, and two-thirds were for computer-related occupations, the report noted.
Loujaina Abdelwahed, senior economist at Revelio Labs, warned that the fee increase “is effectively equivalent to dismantling the H-1B system, potentially eliminating up to 140,000 new jobs per year, about 10,000 per month, in US companies that depend on skilled foreign talent.”
The timing comes as US hiring has slowed down, with employers adding just 29,000 payrolls per month on average over the past three months. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that this shows a “marked meltdown” in both the supply and demand for workers, partially due to lower immigration.
Bloomberg Economics projects that the most concerning effect will likely be a reallocation of visas toward higher-wage roles in technology, finance, and health care, while squeezing out lower-paid positions in sectors such as education. However, they do not expect a major reduction in the overall number of visas, as demand continues to exceed supply.
In the near term, the existing H-1B workforce is expected to remain stable, since the new $100,000 fee applies only to initial petitions, not renewals, according to Bloomberg Economics’ Chris G. Collins and Stuart Paul. “The broader impact is less certain,” they said. “The policy may create some opportunities for US workers and channel visas toward employers who value them most. But it also risks encouraging offshoring of roles no longer viable domestically.”